Finals Round 1 Football Preview with 'Scoop'
It's finally here, the 2022 Carlton Draught Finals Series begins this weekend.
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Melton
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Vs
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Ballarat
SATURDAY AUGUST 27TH - 2.15PM @ MACPHERSON PARK OVAL
Last time they met (Round 5): Ballarat 29 def by Melton 124
Ignore the first meeting of these two sides when you're contemplating a tip for this Qualifying Final albeit at the Bloods' home ground, Macpherson Park. The Swans arrive near full strength with solid form having won nine of their last ten. Admittedly, six of the Swans' 12 wins have come by six points or less. You can go even further and realise ten of their season's wins have been by less than 18 points. On the other hand, the Bloods have genuinely been the bullies of the schoolyard, averaging near 108 points per game for the season and conceding a messily 55 points per game getting it done.
Bloods coach Aaron Tymms would have sensed early that a genuine opportunity presents itself. A real chance to claim the prized silverware that has eluded the club since 2005. Melton were unbeaten for 12 rounds before copping a timely reminder of their mortality by North Ballarat in Round 13 and again by a five-win season Sunbury in Round 16. I'm convinced their two-game season losses ahead of the finals will hold them in good stead. They're relatively free of injury and boast unrivalled depth. In a nutshell, cherry ripe, balanced, and without excuse.
Only Joe Carmody's Ballarat truly know how they will fare against the might of the Minor Premiers. Bailey Van de Heuvel is a massive in while the return to peak form of ruckman Marcus Powling after some time out with a hamstring will only enhance belief. Expect Aiden Domic (concussion) who missed last week to return. To put their Round 5 disaster meet into perspective, highlighting its current relevance you need only look at the team sheet. Only 12 Swans took part in last week's nail-biting win over Sebastopol (and loss to Melton). Tymms will be well aware and fully versed in the fact that despite the Bloods' superior season, the Swans' win/loss returns for the last ten weeks are marginally better.
But please Ballarat, on behalf of all Swans fans start well, similar to your last two weeks and spare the faithful heart palpitations for another week. Missing the start here against the Bloods can only mean trouble. The Bloods are 15-1 for leading in first quarters.
The Swans will be nervous, the group is seemingly bereft of finals experience bar Josh Gibson and Andrew Hooper. The two will play a crucial role in calming the mental anxieties that come with a big stage.
I wish the Swans luck, they'll need every bit.
By the numbers in 2022: Melton 1 - Ballarat 0
Melton
Finished: 1st (14 wins, 2 losses)
Record against top six teams: W6 L1
Offence team rating (comp): 1st (107.8 avg)
Defence team rating (comp): 1st (55.1 avg)
Leading goalkicker: Ryan Carter (56)
Hendo chance: Lachie Watkins (in best 10/15)
Will Liston (in best 12/16)
Ballarat
Finished 2nd: (12 wins, 4 losses)
Record against top six teams: W5 L3
Offence team rating (comp): 8th (72.4 avg)
Defence team rating (comp): 4th (64.1 avg)
Leading goalkicker: Andrew Hooper (35)
Hendo chance: Will Liston (in best 12/16)
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Sebastopol
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Vs
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North Ballarat
SATURDAY AUGUST 27TH - 2.15PM @ Eastern Oval
Last time they met (Round 16): North Ballarat 60 def by Sebastopol 75
I'm not sure who had either of these teams bowing out in week one of the finals but it will happen.
Finding a winner, like many involving top six games this year has been difficult. But what Sebastopol have over North Ballarat are two wins already this year. I know North Ballarat Coach Brendan McCartney has said what has happened before stands for very little in the new season but the confidence the Burras drive from those two outings should give them confidence. Unfortunately for North Ballarat they have lost four of their last five home and away games and won't have the luxury of getting the job done on Mars Stadium, the venue they play so well. Six of the club's eighth-season wins this year were at home (North Ballarat 2-6 on the road).
Sebastopol coach Michael Searl, while fully respectful, has no reason to fear North Ballarat. The Burras' best is certainly good enough to edge out McCartney's boys but it's going to take that - their best to get it done.
Containing dangerous North Ballarat forward trio Jamie Quick (39 goals), Jack Riding (35) and Josh Chatfield (11 in six games) looms the Burras' greatest challenge. You don't have to be Einstein to work out the likely match-ups, but it's nice knowing you have the cattle to minimise their influence.
Expect Burras mids Lachie Cassidy, Daniel Widgery and Chase Dummett to match the physicality early of North Ballarat who are the immediate beneficiaries of Cam McCallum's dominance in the ruck. Just how many hits to advantage in the direction of Riley Polkinghorne, Tim Spiers and Brock Leonard will tell its own story at the game's end. The defence of North Ballarat has been a pillar of strength for the most part but they did cough up their highest individual (quarter) score against the Devils last week. And when you consider the plentiful options forward of centre for the Burras, you can safely assume they're more than capable of posting a winning score.
Both sides will have benefitted from further learnings during the week on the back of their Round 18 losses. There won't be much in this, just who settles the quickest and can execute on the fundamentals especially early will be hard to catch.
By the numbers in 2022: Sebastopol 2 - North Ballarat 0
Sebastopol
Finished: 3rd (10 wins, 6 losses)
Record against top six teams: W4 L4
Offence team rating (comp): 6th (74.2 avg)
Defence team rating (comp): 3rd (63.5 avg)
Leading goalkicker: James Keeble (29)
Hendo chance: Tony Lockyer (in best 11/16)
North Ballarat
Finished: 6th (8 wins, 8 losses)
Record against top six teams: W3 L7
Offence team rating (comp): 4th (82.4 avg)
Defence team rating (comp): 2nd (63.4 avg)
Leading goalkicker: Jamie Quick (39)
Hendo chance: Jack Riding (in best 8/15)
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Darley
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Vs
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East Point
SUNDAY AUGUST 28TH - 2.15PM @ CITY OVAL BALLARAT
Last time they met (Round 15): Darley 87 def East Point 57
Both teams will be well versed in each other's strengths and weaknesses given this will be their third meeting in 10 weeks. If they weren't rivals already, I'm near certain one is building as these east vs west combatants face off in another highly anticipated showdown. The two sides share four of the last five (completed) BFNL Premierships and the reality tells us, that one of these club's seasons is coming to an end. But on the flip side, what a way to progress. In Darley's case, under new Coach Dan Jordan (a former East Point star) - getting the result would be a monumental achievement for the club after a winless 2021. For East Point, to be riding high near the top with an interrupted three-peat still well and truly alive is a credit to the Kangas. Footy post covid has proven a difficult landscape to negotiate but we've made it, especially these two, albeit separate journeys. So hats off to Kangas coach Jake Bridges and the Devils' Dan Jordan for leading their respective sides back to the business end. And we won't be shy on talent for this version of the Elimination Final I guarantee you. Expect a massive crowd for this stand-alone BFNL final as all and sundry flock to the stands for their piece of the action.
Both sides finished with 10 wins separated by just .87% and share a win apiece from their two hit-outs thus far. It's only fair the winner progresses in a game that looms as the ideal decider.
The fourth-placed Devils boast top-end talent Brett Bewley, Dylan Landt, Nick Rodda, Matthew Brett and the experience of Darren Leonard, Shane Page and Luther Baker. Throw some of their progressive youth into the mix with nothing to fear, and Darley has a genuine chance of winning in Ballarat.
Not to be outdone, the fifth-placed Kangas top end has proven more than capable. Jordy Johnston, Matty Johnston, Mickitja Rotumah Onus, Jackson Merrett, Joe Dodd and Jacob Brown are just a half dozen players that can decide the game given a sniff on their terms. The depth goes beyond that for the Kangas, a line-up laden with been-there-done-that Premiership players. Can they over-awe a less experienced Devils coming to terms with a return to finals?
I think we'll know the answer as early as halftime. The Devils will be up against it mentally and physically but if granted liberty to become the best version of themselves, a spot in the remaining four and week two of the finals awaits.
By the numbers in 2022: Darley 1 - East Point 1
Darley
Finished: 4th (10 wins, 6 losses)
Record against top six teams: W4 L4
Offence team rating (comp): 3rd (83.8 avg)
Defence team rating (comp): 6th (75.3 avg)
Leading goalkicker: Nick Rodda (56)
Hendo chance: Brett Bewley (in best 11/16)
East Point
Finished: 4th 5th (10 wins, 6 losses)
Record against top six teams: W4 L6
Offence team rating (comp): 2nd (90.8 avg)
Defence team rating (comp): 9th (82.3 avg)
Leading goalkicker: Jordy Johnston (51)
Hendo chance: Jordy Johnston (in best 9/16)
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