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BFNL Weekend Preview - Round 13, 2023


As the number suggests, Round 13 may prove unlucky for some, with a number of games looking capable of an upset.

The underdogs can take it up to their more fancied opponents for periods, but for how long looms their greatest challenge. 


Sunbury

vs

Ballarat

SATURDAY JULY 22ND - 2.15PM @ CLARKE OVAL

Last time they met - Ballarat 88 def. Sunbury 62
(Alfredton Oval, Round 9 2023)

Ballarat's upset win over Sunbury in Round 9 has added some intrigue to this battle. The Swans remain the pests in the comp shaping the top eight for their best is good enough and proven upset material.

But you can guarantee, Lions coach Travis Hodgson will have done his homework ensuring a 0-2 head to head v lowly Ballarat does not eventuate.

They may have to plan without their VFL affiliates Jack Newitt (Northern Bullants), Jake Sutton (Essendon) and Harry Minton-Connell (Essendon) whose rich vein of recent form has warranted selection at the higher level over the last month.

The Swans were simply too honest for Sunbury at their first meeting - Will Liston, Paddy Simpson and Marcus Powling especially don't play bad games and with the return of Daniel Kennedy, and usual threat of forward Andrew Hooper (33 goals) the visitors will arrive with confidence embracing the underdog tag.

Let's not forget only a week ago at three-quarter time these young Swans under Chris Maple were within 12 points of North Ballarat at Mars Stadium before discipline proved their undoing, conceding the last four goals of the game via free kicks.

Both sides boast promising depth, and it would be nice to see them hang on for another crack given the Lions debuted four players last week.

Not to be outdone the Swans had five players still eligible for the Under 19s take on Brendan McCartney’s Roosters, limiting them to 11 goals despite a 39-point loss.

If the Lions are fair dinkum, they should win, and win well at home against the eighth placed Swans.

Deny the visitors a sniff early and the Lions will be on their way. However, in the event of the door being left slight ajar, beware the momentum of youth.

Scoop’s tip: Sunbury


Melton South

vs

Sebastopol

SATURDAY JULY 22ND - 2.15PM @ MELTON RECREATION RESERVE

Last time they met - Sebastopol 175 def. Melton South 28 (Marty Busch Reserve, Round 4 2023)

The Burra have an opportunity to fine tune their touch, selflessness and game plan when they take on the embattled Panthers whose season can't come to an end quick enough.

Unfortunately for the hosts, it's the painful reality of a season gone awry for various reasons.

Credit to coach Ryan Hoy who has stuck with the club since his move from St Kilda City in the off-season to endure the battle.

And this match-up won't be any easier for them when they take on Sebastopol who are still yet to settle on its own version of their best 22.

No doubt we'll see a few Burras players impact the scoreboard, like many have been able to do against the Panthers this year who average 176 points against per game.

With the result looming foregone, dual Burra coaching duo Luke Kiel and Michael Columbro will have their fingers crossed their group gets through unscathed after losing quality mid Lachie Cassidy to a recurring low grade hamstring strain. 

Burra forwards Toby Hutt, James Keeble and new edition Jay Dalhaus should enjoy a day out before a like-for-like match up awaits with North Ballarat in Round 14.

Scoop’s tip: Sebastopol


Redan

Vs

North Ballarat

SATURDAY JULY 22ND - 2.15PM @ CITY OVAL

Last time they met - North Ballarat 69 def. Redan 56
(Mars Stadium, Round 2 2023)

Redan missed a golden opportunity last week to go two games and percentage clear of East Point (7th) earning vital separation inside the top six.

But credit to the Kangas, they were far too good and find themselves within less than 1% of Redan.

So again, the pressure is on the Lions to deliver at home, this time against North Ballarat.

The Roosters remaining five games see them come up against team all in the top seven equation, so don't expect the visitors to be taking their foot off the pedal as they an eye an all-important top three finish.

Trying to make excuses for the Lions’ failings last week with arguably their best side in is perplexing.

Maybe their block of games with a young group going back to Round 5 had taken its toll - Melton, East Point, Sunbury, Sebastopol, Darley, Melton South and then the Kangas again.

It’s a tough stretch that continues with a showdown against Brendan McCartney's army who held off the Lions at their earlier meet at Mars Stadium by 13 points - their narrowest win at home for the season.

Redan coach Gary Learmonth will have conceded a forgiving run last week with an eye toward the next challenge. For the record, the Lions three wins at home at this season have come against bottom four sides.

McCartney on the otherhand will be fully aware of his own teams’ challengers en route to finals and will look to make it a seventh win on the trot.

The Roosters’ VFL affiliates are playing well at the higher level and are unlikely for an immediate return, providing the underdog Lions with a realistic 'throw at the stumps' chance. 

Redan's best is good enough, but we don't see it often enough and with North's emphasis on contested ball and tackling, questions will surely be asked of Learmonth's young group.  

Scoop’s tip: North Ballarat


Melton

vs

East Point

SATURDAY JULY 22ND - 2.15PM @ MACPHERSON PARK

Last time they met - East Point 75 def. by Melton 83
(Eastern Oval, Round 7 2023)

For all of Melton’s ten wins so far in 2023, their eight-point win over East Point in Round 7 was in fact their narrowest and should give visiting coach Jackson Merrett no reason to fear the reigning premiers.

Furthermore, the Kangas have led the benchmark Bloods at halftime in five of their last six meets and will be wanting for a repeat of that pattern given the context of their season.

Merrett's men are just .57% shy of Redan in sixth place and will need a scalp ahead of the business end to feature given the Lions’ softer draw.

The Bloods are gettable, and will this week be shy, again, of their best 22 and scoring potential as Liam Carter and Ryan Davis are expected to miss for a further week.

To put scoring into perspective, the Bloods have two players available with 12 goals or more, Ryan Carter (31) and Braedyn Kight (18) while the Kangas have four, namely Brad Whittaker (23), Liam Canny (18), Jack Jeffrey (16) and Bryson McDougall (16).

Avenues to goal also include playing coach Jackson Merrett’s 11 goals from 7 games and shouldn't be a problem for the visitors nor the midfield battle for the Johnston brothers are more than capable matching it with Jack Walker and Lachie Watkins.

Tipping this game to be decided by a battle of the defences.

The Bloods hold a distinct advantage in this area conceding 65.8 points per game against top seven opposition while the Kangas seemingly have some work to do in this area averaging 90.9 points against.

The Kangas’ midfield must deny the Bloods weight of entries forward to give themselves a chance.

It's proven a half-time lead for the Kangas would not surprise but whether they can hang on over four quarters is another challenge altogether. 

Scoop’s tip: Melton


Darley

vs

Bacchus Marsh

SATURDAY JULY 22ND @ DARLEY PARK

Last time they met – Bacchus Marsh 44 def. by Darley 94 (Maddingley Park, Round 2 2023)

The Devils will aim to consolidate its top three credentials with a win over cross town rival Bacchus Marsh.

This season's earlier edition of the local derby saw Dan Jordan's men record a 50-point win with the Devils doing enough without setting the world on fire.

Now 12 rounds in, resembling a better version of themselves will be on Jordan's radar, as the Cobras arrive with all bar Jake Long available.

The Cobras will bring pressure, they often do, and energy on the back of a handful of returning youth from the Coates Talent League.

Fundamentally however, it's the Cobras kicking game on the bigger ground (Darley Park) that looms their greatest cause for concern.

They simply don't kick the ball well, validating the 'scrap' post script nature of many rivals’ coaches.

The Devils have had their own battles over the last month with injury and flat performances but looked more like the 8-2 team example with an encouraging win over Sebastopol in Round 11.

Strange when you hear that the Burra and Melton make up the Devils last two wins. Not many can say that in recent times.       

While the Cobras would have fond memories of their last visit to Darley Park in 2022 that ended in a last gasp one-point win, only five players have been retained from that day.

Darley could have up to 15 representatives from that game. Needless to add the Devils have made substantial gains since, are in the 'double chance' conversation and can't afford to be coughing up this one despite the usual local hype.

Scoop’s tip: Darley


Lake Wendouree

Bye