BFNL Weekend Preview - Round 13, 2024
A number of heavyweight battles headline Round 13 with plenty of match ups set to determine the look of the ladder as we head into the pointy end of the season.
East Point
vs
Darley
SATURDAY JULY 20TH - 2.15PM @ EASTERN OVAL
- BFNL MATCH OF THE ROUND LIVE WITH FULL COMMENTARY 2PM VIA BFNL MATCH CENTRE -
Last time they met - Darley 140 def. East Point 44 (Darley Park, Round 1 2024)
Despite the anomaly of the Kangas’ Round 1 failings, Joe Carmody's group will start warm favorites turning the tables on the Devils at Eastern Oval.
Since their 96-point wakeup call at Darley Park, the Kangas have taken all before them marching their way through a 10-game winning streak, beating every side bar Dan Jordan's touring party in the process.
For some Kangas, the loss to Darley will be a distant memory but for some it will feel like yesterday given the four-quarter obliteration.
But what a formidable side East Point have become under new season coach Joe Carmody - some rival clubs and players have gone on the record to say they're the best they've seen so far in 2024.
A win for Darley on the road given the form of the Kangas would be arguably Dan Jordan's biggest win outside of finals and the clubs’ seven-year, drought breaking win over Melton in Round 8 last year.
If the 'just going' Devils are still in the game at half time, the numbers suggest their challenges have only just begun.
Post Round 1, East Point's second half returns have been ridiculous.
For third quarters the Kangas are W9-L1 (348-96) averaging near 35 points (for) while conceding less than 10 (9.6) for the period.
Final quarters are just as impressive for the Kangas icing the cake having W9-D1-L0 (298-145), averaging near 30 points (for) and a miserly 14.5 against. The one-sided nature of the Kangas’ second halves equates to W10 L0 (646 pts FOR, 241 pts AGST) - essentially a seven goal advantage.
Darley's task will be made even tougher in the likely absence of star playmaker Billy Myers (calf) who was unsighted after half time in the club’s 12-point win over North Ballarat.
Myers joins Wil Johnson, Adam Azzopardi, Mitch Ward and Jack Bewley on the injury list, an area East Point have been blessed with since the season opener.... until now.
There are concerns for Joe Dodd (dislocated knee), Deng Lual (leg), Geordie Slater (leg) and Strahan Robinson (minor calf) getting up for the BFNL's Match of the Round, leaving the door slightly ajar for the visitors.
I'm not sure the Devils can get it done with their outs, limited avenues to goal and season long struggles for connection unlike their 2023 premiership year, but you can guarantee a Dan Jordan mentored and Brett Bewley (41.8 avg disposals - comp rank #1) led crew will have other ideas.
The Kangas’ top end are all in career best form - Matty Johnston (36 disp avg - comp rank #2), Jordy Johnston (18 goals, 7.4 marks, 6 inside 50s, 10 score involvements), Bryson McDougall (43 goals - comp rank #2), Joel Van Meel (comp rank #1 for hits to advantage 10.8), Jackson Merrett and Jacob Brown (average 17 marks between them in the back half - comp rank #1 and #4 for uncontested marks) and Mikitja Rottumah-Onus (25 disp - 7 clearances).
SCOOP’S TIP
East Point
North Ballarat
vs
Melton
SATURDAY JULY 20TH - 2.15PM @ MARS STADIUM
Last time they met - Melton 87 def. North Ballarat 81 (MacPherson Park, Round 3 2024)
A young Roosters outfit will endeavour to end the Bloods’ six game winning streak at Mars Stadium this Saturday as Melton head up the highway.
Brendan McCartney would be the first to concede it’s a mission easier said than done despite the Roosters’ impressive record at home.
Only East Point (twice), Melton and Ballarat have been successful at the venue dating back to the start of 2022.
Unfortunately for McCartney's group, injuries and unavailability of key personnel will make it tough tp deny the Bloods a seventh win on the trot.
It won’t be without some minor concerns for the Bloods with the absence of Jordy Cotter, Jono O'Brien and Ryan Davis.
Not dissimilar to last week, expect North Ballarat to will this game into an arm wrestle for as long as possible and minimise the damage the Bloods can inflict given an (uncontested) game on their own terms.
The Bloods are so well set up behind the ball, structurally sound and thriving in a period 'all on the same page'.
Forward, they're dynamite at the moment, in rare air, posing a five-pronged attack who rarely miss their opportunities.
The Kights, the Carters and (push forward) winger Kyle Borg are finding isolation aerially and at ground level to swoop and score far too easily.
Can McCartney and his band of inexperienced soldiers find a way to stifle a recurrence? I anticipate they will for periods but for the long haul, albeit four quarters will be a tough ask.
The effort the Bloods brought to the table in the last quarter of last week’s 77-point win over Sunbury was that of a team on a mission with an unquestionable work ethic.
There was simply no let up as the Bloods kicked the last four goals of the game to put the icing on the cake.
Their premiership credentials this far out are compelling.
McCartney has been on the record making us acutely aware over recent seasons, around this time, there's still 'a long way to go'.
In fact, Melton had lost just the one game at this stage last year adding a sense of deja vu to the conversation.
The Bloods won't find it easy to shrug the resistance of the hosts, East Point and Darley more recently can attest to that.
Somehow, undermanned North Ballarat hit the front in the last quarter against the Kangas and were within a goal late of the Devils before falling 'respectfully' short.
Consider the evidence a reminder for Bloods’ coach Troy Scoble who will take no prisoners regardless of opposition or where they're situated on the table - it's all part of rendering the mission complete.
SCOOP’S TIP
Melton
Sunbury
vs
Redan
SATURDAY JULY 20TH - 2.15PM @ CLARKE OVAL
Last time they met - Redan 74 def. by Sunbury 99 (City Oval, Round 1 2024)
Sunbury host Redan in a must win game for both clubs given their recent records.
These two sides have lost four of their last five games. Sunbury will be desperate to keep their top three credentials alive while Redan's chances of pinching a spot in the finals action hang by a thread.
In a battle between the Lions in the 'East' and the Lions in the 'West', just who is the hungrier of the two prides and more methodical in the stalking of their prey will surely earn the all-important four premiership points.
With Darley and North Ballarat starting underdogs this round against East Point and Melton respectively it's the ideal opportunity for Sunbury to bounce back.
A win could see the Lions of the 'East' (Sunbury) return into third place come 5pm Saturday, and they should get it done especially on their own territory.
But you can't dismiss the visitors and their agenda with a top six finish still on the cards - just!
Gary Learmonth's group need a win against a team above them if they're to feature.
At the moment seventh placed Redan are W0 L7 against the top six teams. Winning at the Clarke Oval has been a tough assignment for any BFNL touring party regardless of ladder position.
Only Melton (four points) have been successful.
Questions will be asked of Redan as Sunbury welcome back overlap runner and link man Mitch Lewis onto a wing.
Given the size of the Clarke Oval you can't downplay the importance of the wingmen, they're essentially an extension of the midfield.
Expect the former Port Melbourne utility to improve the general makeup of the Sunbury lineup who were without Jack Hannett, Nathan Wood and Jake Egan in last week’s 77-point loss to Melton.
Jordan Tentonello should be fine to go after a 'corky' left him lame on the sidelines for last week’s second half.
Redan's struggles to score are a massive concern given the talent that is in their front half.
The Geelong VFL listed Lachie Bond will appreciate the room at Clarke Oval and be keen for a breakout game alongside more than capable trio Grant Bell, Marty Boyer and Lachie McLean.
Mobile ruckman Rudie Forde is showing great promise and should welcome the big ground giving Khy Jess and Lachie Bond a chance to better a Sunbury midfield that has had its colors lowered in recent weeks against Melton (twice), Ballarat and East Point.
However, I expect in-form Sunbury forwards Jake Sutton and Mitch McLean will prove an afternoon long handful for the Redan defence and arguably the difference in the game come 5pm Saturday.
SCOOP’S TIP
Sunbury
Melton South
vs
Bacchus Marsh
SATURDAY JULY 20TH - 2.15PM @ MELTON RECREATION RESERVE
Last time they met - Bacchus Marsh 131 def. Melton South 22 (Maddingley Park, Round 6 2024)
Bacchus Marsh will look to bounce back to the winner’s list when they travel to Melton South this weekend.
After showing periods of promise equating to three wins from their opening six games, the Cobras remain winless post their bye having lost their last five games.
The recent struggles for the Cobras hitting the scoreboard will give the Panthers a live chance recording their first 'quarter win' of the season.
Ironically, it was against the Cobras last year the Panthers recorded their only 'quarter' win of the season.
Since the Cobras’ Round 7 bye, goal returns of nine, six, eight, three and seven have provided them with little chance acquiring an elusive fourth win.
But the perfect opportunity to buck the trend presents in the form of the winless Panthers who average 150 points against per game.
Expect experienced campaigner and tireless key Jake Owen (25 goals - comp rank #7) to feature despite a deliberate match-up from former coach Travis Hodgson who has huge respect for the former Cobras’ captain.
The Panthers will be refreshed after a week off and buoyed by the recent contributions of Cody Chapman, Mitch Fino and Broden Collins at interleague level that should instill the group with some confidence to take it up to the struggling Cobras for periods.
While Hodgson looks for mini wins from his embattled group, expectations will be much greater out of the Cobras camp led by playing coach Dennis Armfield.
This Round 13 match-up will provide Armfield with the perfect stage to resemble more of the style of footy he wants his group to play.
Failure here to replicate on a simple plan of demands from the former Carlton AFL utility would compound the recent frustrations for a group not shy on talent or will to play for the jumper.
It's all about regaining continuity and connection for the Cobras this weekend.
A spike in enjoyment levels surely follows with compliance, as process takes care of the result, culminating with an overdue rendition of the victory song in smile and unison.
SCOOP’S TIP
Bacchus Marsh
Lake Wendouree
vs
Sebastopol
SATURDAY JULY 20TH - 2.15PM @ C.E BROWN RESERVE
Last time they met - Sebastopol 118 def. Lake Wendouree 38 (Marty Busch Reserve, Round 1 2024)
Forget their Round 1 meeting, Lake Wendouree are in with a real live chance upsetting Sebastopol at CE Brown Reserve.
The Lakers consolidated their recent signs of improvement with a 29-point win over Bacchus Marsh ending an 11-game run of outs on the road.
'Run of outs' is probably an understatement given their average 'away' loss for the period was 74 points.
Welcome back!
Excited Lakers’ coach Rohan Brown will embrace the challenge against a Burras outfit playing above their three-win season return.
After a horror run with injury, Tony Lockyer’s group are beginning to resemble more of the Burra we're familiar with having taken it up to third placed Darley and more recently second placed East Point.
On both occasions, despite eventual loss, the improving Burra have been within striking distance at the final change.
Not to be outdone, the Lakers were within 25 points of the Devils at three quarter time before the reigning premiers corrected their errant ways in front of goal.
Regardless of the final margin the Lakers did crack in which has been a common theme from rival coaches in the aftermath.
The consensus on the Burra has been equally as encouraging, implying Lockyer's group will trouble a few more fancied runners on the way home.
If that is to be the case, you would think a win over a spirited Lakers is more likely than not. But certainly not the 'given' that was expected in Round 1.
Both sides are on the up, disparity far less than we've seen recent years.
The Lakers should hold no fears for the Burra but must learn good habits around repeat efforts from week to week rather than settling for a monthly celebration in song.
It's time to embrace the next level with work rate, buy-in and consistency. The reward is palpable, we saw what it meant for the group last week.
This match will tell us more about the Lakers and their progress. Can they reproduce and raise the bar?
I guarantee Lockyer and Sebastopol will come ready to test the waters...
SCOOP’S TIP
Sebastopol