Round 9 in the McDonald's Ballarat FNL is the only round in 2021 with ALL five games requiring highway travel.
When measuring overall away highway performance - what is real is that winning up or down the highway is as difficult as ever.
The numbers are extraordinary.
There have been 108 games from the beginning of 2018 to now involving teams travelling down the highway, i.e., east travelling west or west travelling east.
Away teams have been successful just 30 times from those 108 games at a win rate of 27.77%. Across 2021 to date, 6 wins out of 19 away highway trips is a win rate of 31.58%.
Given the Round 9 matchups, travelling teams have as good a chance as any to close the gap.
Scoop previews Round Nine
Since 2018 Head-to-Head: Bacchus Marsh 2 - Sebastopol 2
The Cobras (sitting 6th, played 7 won 4 lost 3) will have to do it without captain Jake Owen and his wedding guests, virtually handing the travelling 'Burras (sitting 4th, played 7 won 4 lost 3) the favourites tag despite their unbeaten record at home this year.
While the visitors are likely to miss Michael Powell and Luke Kiel (hamstrings), they've got the perfect opportunity to take full advantage of a Cobras forward line missing 58% of its 2021 goal power - namely Owen and Aaron Willetts. They have combined for 39 of the club's 67 goals this season.
When you consider Sebastopol rank #3 for avg. points scored per game at 84, versus the Marsh #8 with a 68-point average, it's not rocket science to assume this game, given the absentees, will be an uphill battle for the Cobras. Jake's brother, and a new edition in 2021 for the Cobras, 195cm Jaidyn would have assumed the #1 forward role, but wedding party duties will see him miss as well.
Just how will the Cobras contain the 'Burras offensive weapons to returns less than their own is the challenge. Nevertheless, it's an opportunity for someone at Cobra land to take this opportunity in what would be a memorable victory. Furthermore, the Cobras boast a reputable league ranking of #3 in defence, conceding just 65 points on average per game. Similar returns are a must in this one to consolidate their position in the Top Six come 5 pm.
Since 2018 Head-to-Head: Redan 2 - Sunbury 1
Can Sunbury (sitting 8th, played 7 won 3 lost 4) defy a 0-7 run for BFNL teams off the bye against a Redan outfit (sitting 7th, played 7 won 3 lost 4) aiming to stay in touch of the Top Six?
It won't be easy. You can add the highway trip into the degree of difficulty, but Travis Hodgson's Lions should hold no fears, having made a successful visit to Sebastopol just a fortnight ago.
Hodgson will be aware of the numbers against, I assure you, whether the players know (or even care) is another thing. Numbers provide some truth but aren't everything. Nonetheless, while Sunbury did salute as underdogs against the 'Burra, they'll be that again.
The Redan Lions, as I've said before, are enigmatic by definition. The gap between their best and worst remains an ongoing battle for Giampaolo and his men. It's hard to believe that only Darley has won fewer quarters than Redan (11out of 28 at 39%) in 2021 - that is a concern.
Sure, Redan's winning chances again rely significantly on the output of key-mid Lachie George, but it looks like more help has arrived. The form of Daniel Bond, Keenan Waterbury and Cooper Craig-Peters in recent weeks has been encouraging, while opportunistic forward Isaac Grant is back hitting the scoreboard.
Sunbury's top-end is dangerous and never far from taking the game away against any opposition. However, just their impact alone, not to mention their availability, will tell its own win/loss story in the aftermath.
Since 2018 Head-to-Head: Melton 2 - Ballarat 1
For all of Melton's (sitting 2nd, played 7 won 5 lost 2) half-season good work, the reality is they're just one game ahead of four teams on 16 points, and Saturday's challenger on the road happens to be one of them - Ballarat (sitting 5th, played 8 won 4 lost 4).
The Bloods have been impressive, don't get me wrong, particularly with their ability to get results despite a tough run with injury to key players. However, how they bounce back second-up off a 35-day break and energy-sapping loss to North Ballarat City remains to be seen. While the Bloods hit the front momentarily in their 20-point loss last week, they did lose three quarters where they could manage just 2.8 in total.
Hitting the scoreboard for the Bloods on a welcomed return to MacPherson Park will be high on the agenda, and boy, they have the cattle to do so.
Braedan Kight (16 goals), Liam Carter (15) and Ryan Carter (14) make up three of the league's top seven scorers. That's not including an inaccurate Kevin Klix (10 in 5 games & sitting 17th on the goal kicking ladder) with 20-odd behinds to his name.
Bloods coach Aaron Tymms will be hopeful that Swans defender Josh Gibson (hamstring, precautionary) is rested and league improver Bailey Van de Heuvel is required at Footscray VFL. The two have already played a part in the Swans revival in 2021.
Andrew Hooper looks the apparent danger forward to lead the upset campaign for the Swans on the back of seven goals last week. Who knows, maybe a second threat has already emerged in key target Jake Dunne.
Since 2018 Head-to-Head: Lakers 0 - Darley 3
While a game and percentage are all that separates third from tenth, this game for Lake Wendouree (sitting 9th, played 7 won 3 lost 4) against Darley (sitting 11th played 7 won 0 lost 7) at C.E Brown Reserve could easily be a mini final for them.
There are eight teams (outside of North Ballarat City and Melton) vying for the remaining four spots. Do the math - eight doesn't go into four.
The Lakers in ninth place is not necessarily a true reflection of where they're at, given they rank #4 in the competition for quarters won. Lachlan Pfeiffer (knee) and Mitch Phillips (hamstring) will miss for the Lakers. Still, they will welcome back preferred ruckman Callum Harte after youngster Kye Edwards had the unenviable task last week of tackling former Henderson Medallist, Cobra's Daniel Burton.
The road for Darley in 2021 has been a long one, and this weekend's second of three consecutive highway trips to Ballarat doesn't make it any easier. On a positive note for the Devils, they did welcome back former BFNL captain Shane Page last week, who was named best in the heavy loss to East Point.
Lakers fans should remember the Page name, given his clutch mark and match-winning goal late to steal the points last time the two sides met at C.E Brown Reserve.
It's essentially another throw at the stumps for Darley, eager to post their first 'W' of the season. Surely the Lakers won't cough this one up; otherwise, they can wave goodbye to finals this far out.
Since 2018 Head-to-Head: Melton South 2 – North Ballarat 2
Strangely, Melton South's (sitting 10th, played 7 won 3 lost 4) record against North Ballarat City (sitting 1st, played 8 won 7 lost 1) is their best against any side dating back to 2018. Yes, the Panthers have won their last two at home against this year's ladder leaders, and I'm sure there's a few in City's line-up that played a part.
Melton South have shown in 2021 that they're a different proposition at home with wins over Bacchus Marsh and Sunbury and falling agonisingly shy of Redan by in Round Two. What the Panthers do have is the BFNL's leading goalkicker and former Port Melbourne star Dylan Conway, who has kicked 35% of their total goals.
What is more encouraging for the home team is their efficiency on goal ranking #1 in the comp. They'll need Conway more than ever and to have their accurate kicking boots on again if they're to trouble City, who have this match to get through before their well-deserved bye set down for Round 10.
City's only hiccup in the season so far came against the Lakers in Round Three (loss by 7 points), but new coach Brendan McCartney is adamant they're far from the finished product, more a work in progress. That assessment alone sounds ominous for the broader competition.
How Pritchard's Panthers contain City's multiple avenues to goal will be his greatest challenge. McCartney told 'The Presser' last Wednesday night he leads a very unselfish group who don't care who kicks the goals. The buy-in at City is palpable. For the Panthers, getting beaten today isn't the be-all and end-all; they'll be assessed on effort, which will legitimise a response from last week's disappointing 75-point loss to Ballarat.
