Tom German's Bacchus Marsh (7th on the ladder) simply must get it done this weekend, as the McDonald’s Ballarat FNL enters the final third of the senior home & away season. And they're likely to have to do it without gun ruckman Daniel Burton who has missed the last two weeks with a foot injury.

Sure, they kept up with Melton to a degree in the first half, but it did end in a 66-point loss. It was their fourth loss of the season by 27 points or more. The Cobras' best has proven to be good enough with wins over three teams currently in the top six, but a loss will undo some of that good work and hamper an already inferior percentage compared to the six teams above. How the Cobras settle in their front half remains an unknown given captain Jake Owen has spent time back and recruited defender Jason Robinson, has spent time forward.

Finding the right combo against the Panthers will play a significant role on the small ground that is Melton Rec Reserve. It's difficult to fathom that the Panthers play their better footy away from home, a game style more suited to the bigger grounds. Their 0-6 home record in 2022 confirms the theory. Panthers coach Heath Pritchard does not fear the Cobras having won their last two meetings. His primary concerns lie with his own group and their ability to maximise opportunity - a facet of their game that proved costly last week against Darley. Their errant 7.14 scoreline included 2.9 in the second half. Both teams average 18.5 shots on goal per game, ranked 9th and 10th in the competition. I'm expecting higher numbers on the smaller ground - just who converts more effectively in front of goal will determine the winner.

50/50 game, both are momentum teams who can lapse without the footy - game on.

If Redan has any ambitions of featuring in this year's finals, a win on the road is vital. The Lions sit two games outside the six with a bad percentage (as good as another game). Simply put, the Lions need another scalp. A 4-8 win/loss record come 5pm, would see the Lions near out of finals contention. Jarrett Giampaolo's Lions have proven their best is good enough with wins over Sebastopol and North Ballarat earlier in the campaign, but three recent losses on the trot see Redan treading water and vulnerable.

Ballarat, however, would be pleased with their 7-4 ledger knowing there's plenty of room for improvement. How the Swans have won seven games after trailing at half-time on eight occasions, tells more of their character than anything else. Their will to win after the main break rivals any team in the comp. Either there's 'plenty of scope' or they're 'not that good' are the two conclusions you can draw on their pattern of performance. I'm in the 'scope' camp as Marcus Powling begins to reassert his authority around the ground after coming back from a lengthy lay-off. The Lions will be lacking in the ruck stock without Nathan Dunstan or 'Tippa' who are both likely to miss leaving an ideal opportunity for Powling to find his feet.

The two sides are neck and neck for shots on goal per game averaging 21.4 (Ballarat) and 21.3 (Redan), ranked 6th and 7th in the comp. The one stat that raises the eyebrow is that despite the Swans' third place on the ladder, they rank 9th for quarters won (18.5/44 @41.25%) with only Melton South and Lake Wendouree below them. Don't expect any record-breaking scores, the focus will be on other areas.

For the Swans, starting well will be priority number one, bring the heat! Whilst for Redan, the old adage 'better for longer' wouldn't be the worst message. If that doesn't work, how about 'season on the line' - for it well and truly is!

Planning to overcome undefeated Melton lies Brendan McCartney’s greatest challenge as his North Ballarat boys aim to make it four wins from their last five games. North's recent winning form aside, with all respect to Darley (69 points), Melton South (83 points) and Bacchus Marsh (27 points), the Bloods loom as a different assignment altogether. You need only revisit the last time these two met when the Bloods dominated on 'Maccy' Park, winning by 68 points - clearly McCartney’s biggest loss in his two seasons. The learnings out of that Round 6 meet warrants particular interest for anyone who loves their footy. What will Macca do differently? Does he have the cattle to arrest the advantage? You know what, it may be too much of an ask for any coach in 2022.

The Bloods are simply the benchmark and are not by any means taking their current position for granted. In fact, the way Aaron Tymms' boys are going about it, you would think they're the hunters, not the hunted. Options are aplenty forward of centre for the Bloods in the Carter brothers, Braedan Kight, Luke Heeney and Lachlan Walker. Containing them all is near impossible on the weight of entries alone. So, the midfield battle looms North Ballarat's greatest challenge, denying the Bloods supply forward.

The ruck battle between Cam McCallum and Mark Orr should be a cracker, while the seasoned mids of both sides go hammer and tong at ground level. North Ballarat has returned similar to the ferocious intent of 2021 and are sure to let the Bloods know they've come to play. Tymms would have had one eye on this game for a couple of weeks now - he would have played this game over in his head a few times. Can his boys continue to sustain their run of form and make it 12-0? Yes is more likely, but they'll be made to work for it.

While ladder positions suggest otherwise, this game could easily go down to the wire - a mirror image of their Round 5 encounter would not be a surprise. The resurgent Devils have a 5-1 record against teams below them at the moment, and Sunbury the opposite at 0-9 against teams above. In fairness to the Lions, six of their losses have been by 20 points or less, giving every indication a third-season win will come sooner rather than later.

Dan Jordan's Devils will have to withstand a Lions push on the back of a morale-boosting 64-point win on the road over the Lakers. The Devils were patchy last week despite a four-quarter win over Melton South and will need to be better again if they're to consolidate a spot in the top six. More will be asked of Brett Bewley, Mace Cousins and Nick Rodda from each line in the likely absence of Dylan Landt (to Essendon VFL).

For the Lions, key forwards Leigh Brennan (17) and Jake Sutton (16) must hit the scoreboard as they did last week, contributing nine of the club's season-high 22 goal return. For all of Sunbury's dominance last week, they did concede 79 points to the Lakers, their highest score despite the loss since their only win in Round 1. How Sunbury deny the Devils hitting their season average of 84 points per game will be pivotal. The Lions rank 8th in offence averaging 68 points per game and will be looking to emulate a similar return. Tipping 72 points (weather permitting) will be enough to post a winning score. For some reason, I feel the pressure is off Sunbury, as the outcome will tell us more about the Devils and any legitimate finals aspirations they may have.

While many pundits don't like to look back, there's no denying some degree of nostalgia lies ahead when these two meet at Marty Busch Reserve. Expect the 'Burras to field as many as 12 players from the 2019 Grand Final side, with the Kangas fielding 13 of their own. This sets the scene for another cracker between these league heavyweights of recent times.

The 'Burras put a 'slow out of the boxes' East Point to the sword in Round 2 after the reigning Premiers missed Round 1 with the bye and the Easter weekend. Since then, Jake Bridges' Kangas have won eight of their last ten to reaffirm their 'hard to beat' tag ahead of the business end.  

This hit-out looms as the perfect segue for East Point ahead of their Round 14 meeting with North Ballarat, not to mention Melton who they meet in Round 17. While we're never sure what Sebastopol's going to do in the opening term at Marty Busch, you can bet your bottom dollar the in-form Kangas will come to play having won seven of their last eight games with Melton, like most, their only hiccup for the period.

At the first term break in five games at Marty Busch this year, the 'Burras have led just once (North Ballarat Round 5). Their slow starts at home in their four losing opening terms have reflected on the scoreboard with lowly returns of 0 (Darley), 12 (Redan), 8 (Sunbury) and 1 (Bacchus Marsh).  

Anything similar will have them playing catch up against the forward strength of East Point led by Jordy Johnston (39 goals). Footy fans will be privy to another classic midfield battle as the 'Burras, buoyed by the recent return of Lachie Cassidy, take on Matty Johnston and Mickitja Rotumah-Onus.

The Kangas hold the aces forward (comp rank #2) over a 'Burras front six (comp rank #5) 22 points adrift for average points per game. But if there's any combo that can deny the Kangas a game on their terms, it will be the 'Burra defence led by inspirational leader and organiser, Tony Lockyer.