BFNL Weekend Preview - Round 12, 2023
As we head into the abbreviated second round of matches, the bottom five sides get another opportunity on Saturday to measure progress on their first meet with a cheeky eye on manufacturing a major upset against five sides currently inside the top six.
Bacchus Marsh
vs
Melton
SATURDAY JULY 15TH - 2.15PM @ MADDINGLEY PARK
Last time they met - Melton 102 – Bacchus Marsh 15 (MacPherson Park, Round 6 2023)
The Cobras owe coach Jason Williams and their fans a buy-in this week when they host competition benchmark Melton at Maddingley Park.
When you're not expected to win, you can go about the task in two ways - accept the likelihood of defeat and play accordingly or 'dig in' and have a crack. At least, provide some resistance with a pride in the jumper performance.
The Cobras effort won't be judged on win or loss, for the Bloods have won 30 of their last 34 games, an amazing achievement.
For the same period the Cobras have won 13. So even with their backs to the wall, the Cobras can impact.
Win a quarter or win a half will be the 'real' expectations on the Cobras who are likely to play in front of a big crowd.
It's the perfect segue ahead of the clubs Round 13 local derby against Darley.
The Cobras top end talent would surely get a game with the powerhouse Bloods so it's not beyond the realms of possibility the hosts can push the ladder leaders for a half as they did against Sunbury in Round 7, when they led by four points at the half.
Melton on the other hand are cruising and will look to put this game to bed early. Their benchmark status has proven intimidating for struggling teams allowing Aaron Tymms’ boys more often a win on their own terms far too soon.
Scoop’s tip: Melton
Sunbury
vs
Melton South
SATURDAY JULY 15TH - 2.15PM @ CLARKE OVAL
Last time they met – Melton South 39 def. by Sunbury 171 (Melton Recreation Reserve, Round 3 2023)
Given the stark contrast of fortunes of these two sides, it's difficult to mount a case for the winless Panthers making an impression on the fifth placed Lions at Clarke Oval.
The rejuvenated Lions returned to their best last week with an 80-point thumping of East Point and welcomed the return of top end talent duo Tyson Lever and Mitch Lewis.
And don't underestimate the confidence build of no less than six Lions who featured at Interleague level a fortnight ago - all made significant contributions in the win over the Hampden League.
That theory was confirmed immediately after strong performances against the Kangas from Harry Minton-Connell, Jake Sutton (five goals) and Cody Brand.
Unfortunately for the Panthers there'll be nowhere to hide on the wide expanses of the Clarke Oval.
Expect the Lions leg speed advantage on the spread to equate to scores the longer this game goes.
Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse for the Panthers on the injury front, the loss of inspirational leader Cody Chapman (hamstring) only compounds the situation and heightens the degrees of difficulty avoiding a loss in excess of three figures.
Who gets the job for the Panthers on dangerous Lions forward Jake Sutton makes for interesting discussion in the aftermath.
Keeping the Essendon VFL listed talent to eight goals will be a fair effort given a genuine lack of depth at the Panthers and the likelihood of a landslide in forward 50 entries.
Scoop’s tip: Sunbury
North Ballarat
vs
Ballarat
SATURDAY JULY 15TH - 2.15PM @ MARS STADIUM
Last time they met - Ballarat 38 def. by North Ballarat 109 (Alfredton Oval, Round 6 2023)
Swans coach Chris Maple and his young group have an opportunity to correct on its disappointing Round 6 loss when they meet North Ballarat at Mars Stadium this Saturday.
While most have the Swans winning chances slim at best, Maple can take some confidence into the game knowing his boys have won three of their last four games, including a top six scalp with a win over Sunbury.
The trip to Mars Stadium looms a timely footy audit for the Swans, a real chance to measure improvement against one of the best 'home' performing sides of the last three seasons.
Brendan McCartney's 14-3 record at 'Mars' since taking the reins at North Ballarat in 2021 is impressive and is likely to remain in good stead.
It makes you wonder if McCartney and North Ballarat really needed the bye last week, for they were flying.
No doubting they would have been well educated over the break for an assault on the back half of the season, so look for the Roosters to start well as they so often do.
For the Swans, believe, hang in and assess at the break. Where to start the match-up conversation for Maple's hierarchy is an unknown given the Roosters VFL player affiliations. Maybe adopt McCartney's theory that "matchups are a thing of the past".
Spend more time trying to win the game than saving is easier said than done. Tipping North Ballarat to be very hard to beat for the remainder of the season.
Scoop’s tip: North Ballarat
Redan
vs
East Point
SATURDAY JULY 15TH - 2.15PM @ CITY OVAL
Last time they met - East Point 79 def. by Redan 92
(Eastern Oval, Round 6 2023)
East Point will look to bounce back when they head to City Oval for a meeting with legitimate finals contender Redan.
It was said some weeks ago, seven teams don’t go into six finals places, so one of these teams will have to miss out.
But when you look into the draw, the Kangas have so much more at stake.
After this weekend, the Lions have, on paper, the pick of the draws with North Ballarat, Lake Wendouree, Ballarat, Melton South and Sebastopol to come, essentially just two meetings with top six sides.
The Kangas on the other hand have Melton, Ballarat, Sebastopol, Lakers and North Ballarat, three of your current top six meets.
Getting it done on Saturday will be an ideal launching pad for Jackson Merrett's crew who sit a game and percentage outside the six.
The potential fall-out with finals chances on the line will be dealt a severe blow in the event of loss. But they're more than blessed with the talent to overcome the Lions despite their 13-point loss on Eastern Oval back in Round 6.
Merrett will have had little time for learnings on last week’s defeat against Sunbury given the nature of the loss and may have afforded his boys a 'mulligan' for indifferent performances from a young group are seldomly avoided.
The top end talent at the Kangas led by the Johnston brothers will need to be at their best to topple the mounting depth of the Lions.
Containing in-form Redan duo Isaac Grant and Marty Boyer who combined for 34 shots on goal last week would be a good place to start.
Scoop’s tip: Redan
Lake Wendouree
vs
Sebastopol
SATURDAY JULY 15TH - 2.15PM @ C.E BROWN RESERVE
Last time they met - Sebastopol 70 def. Lake Wendouree 15 (Marty Busch Reserve, Round 6 2023)
While the result for many looms inevitable, there's still plenty to gain for warm favorites Sebastopol when they face the one-win Lakers at Marty Busch Reserve.
Sure, the Burra have only lost three games for the season but recently they give every indication they're shy of their best.
Luke Kiel and Michael Columbro's men have won just one quarter in each of their games against fellow top six opposition Darley (loss), Redan (win), North Ballarat (loss) and Melton (loss).
Exceptions lie only in their three-quarter win over Sunbury and their 'hang on' win against Redan. But you get the drift, wanting more from the highly talented Burra.
And they're more than capable. In fact, a drought breaking premiership would not surprise and getting back to resembling the best version of themselves could be kick started this weekend.
Conditions didn't help last week against the Devils in fairness, but what else can you expect from weather in July.
Expect a steely focus from the visitors today and added buy-in from the players sounding a clear warning to the Lakers - be prepared!
Staying in the game for the home side will be easier said than done but an improvement on their 15 point tally in Round 6 is a must, a mini win if you will given the final margin is likely to favour the visitors, comfortably.
Scoop’s tip: Sebastopol