BFNL Weekend Preview - Round 14, 2023
As ladder leaders head into Round 14 as favourites, a steely focus is drawn to games set to determine the make-up of the top six with Sebastopol (2nd) hosting North Ballarat (3rd) and East Point (7th) at home to Ballarat (8th).
East Point
vs
Ballarat
SATURDAY JULY 29TH - 2.15PM @ EASTERN OVAL
Last time they met - Ballarat 72 def. by East Point 117
(Alfredton Oval, Round 4 2023)
Given Redan's softer draw on the way home, East Point must win at home against eighth placed Ballarat to keep their finals hopes alive.
The Kangas still have meetings with Sebastopol (H) and North Ballarat (A) to negotiate with on the run home so getting the prized four premiership points here is paramount.
In fairness to East Point (10), come seasons end, only North Ballarat (11) will have played more top seven opposition for the season (out of the top 7).
But that is the way it goes when teams don't play each other twice - you must find a way to get it done. And the 2018/19 premiers have earned the tougher draw given their recent successes.
The Swans, like the Kangas, seemingly play their best footy in Ballarat and will need to present something close to that if they're trouble Jackson Merrett's group at Eastern Oval.
Drastic improvement on their last meet they will need to find - essentially a 45-point differential from Round 4 at Alfredton Oval.
Surely the Swans young group are beginning to tire despite the recent return of Daniel Kennedy and other depth players that played some role last year in their standout third place finish.
But too often the Swans are kept to scores not capable of winning games. On six occasions this year Chris Maple's young group have been kept to six goals or less.
While you’d expect them to surpass that quota, outscoring the freewheeling nature of the Kangas front half, as witnessed in Round 4, looms a different proposition altogether.
Merrett will be under no illusions what's required from his group - win and win well or contemplate missing finals for the first time since 2017.
Scoop’s tip: East Point
Melton South
vs
Melton
SATURDAY JULY 29TH - 2.15PM @ MELTON RECREATION RESERVE
Last time they met - Melton 184 def. Melton South 23
(MacPherson Park, Round 1 2023)
While a win for the visitors will surely take care of itself, the Bloods will aim to get through unscathed ahead of two big games against Sunbury (H) and Darley (A).
Bloods’ coach Aaron Tymms will consider throwing the magnets around once this game is put to bed as a plan B option for finals, identifying some versatility within his squad.
But don't expect leading forward Ryan Carter to be going anywhere! After his come from behind tied win for the Tony Lockett Medal last year, expect the Bloods to make a certainty of it this time around with a 'Christmas in July', stocking full of goals.
Carter (38 goals) leads the competition by four ahead of Redan's Isaac Grant (34) and Ballarat's Andrew Hooper (33). A double figure bag could be on the radar for the tall, mobile forward.
The Panthers’ young blokes will gain some quality ‘on the job’ learnings running with the likes of Jack Walker and Lachie Watkins. Braedyn Kight will showcase his footy smarts forward and Jordy Cotter down back.
Panthers coach Ryan Hoy, 13 rounds deep into a long season may consider mixing it up at review, highlighting why the Bloods remain the benchmark, and most organised of all clubs in the BFNL.
Making a case for the Panthers upsetting their cross-town rivals today would be a falsehood. Bettering their 161-point loss at their first meet and denying the Bloods a 200-point scoreline looms a more achievable challenge.
Scoop’s tip: Melton
Darley
vs
Lake Wendouree
SATURDAY JULY 29TH - 2.15PM @ DARLEY PARK
Last time they met – Lake Wendouree 43 def. by Darley 115
(CE Brown Reserve, Round 7 2023)
The Devils have a golden opportunity to advance into third place on the BFNL table (with a game in hand) when they start hot favorites against one-win Lake Wendouree.
While the Lakers’ season has been disappointing, they have shown some improvements, albeit in loss, with recent eight-goal returns against finals contenders Sebastopol, North Ballarat and East Point.
Their tough run of footy, including Melton, should hold them in good stead on the competitive front despite the absence of the O'Connell boys (overseas), Callum McKay (shoulder) and Jacob Coxall (concussion issues).
The inclusions of twin towers, former St Josephs (GFL) big man Tom Zampatti and Rebels tall Felix Fogarty has at least given Lakers mid-season appointed coach Tim Shearer some structural presence to work with.
The towering duo have featured three times in the best in their five and four games respectively,
For the Devils, coach Dan Jordan will have a list of priorities wanting to be achieved as his side continues its journey back to full health and fitness ahead of finals.
While the likes of Billy Myers, Luther Baker, Brady Wright and Leigh Spiteri have returned, there's nothing like more game time into rebuilding synergy with the group and their own 'tanks' in the process with big games still to come against North Ballarat, Melton and Sunbury.
Since their arrival home on Darley Park the Devils have been a bit leaky in defence over their three games, averaging 77 points against, despite wins over Bacchus Marsh and Sebastopol.
No doubt the Devils will look to reduce this number against the Lakers with finals-like frugality, a key component if Jordan's crew intend to go deep into finals.
Scoop’s tip: Darley
Sebastopol
vs
North Ballarat
SATURDAY JULY 29TH - 2.15PM @ MARTY BUSCH RESERVE
Last time they met - North Ballarat 93 def. Sebastopol 63
(Mars Stadium, Round 7 2023)
This battle is just what the competition needs ahead of five remaining home and away rounds that will decide the final make-up of the top six.
Depending on who you ask, both sides could play the underdog card with the Burra strong on their home deck while the Roosters arrive on the back of a seven-game winning streak.
Just what version of the Burra we get to witness on Saturday will go a long way determining their fate. Despite a 155-point win over the winless Panthers last week, the club is still not sure of its best 22.
Rushing Jed Hill. James Keeble, Bailey Medwell, Lachie Cassidy and Arnold Kirby back sounds like the ultimate restock, but how many returns are too many?
Often list turnover in the five or more range from one week to the next can be unsettling on the connection front. That's not including Daniel Widgery, Chase Dummett, Graydn Snowden, Jai Harvey and Ryan Birthesel who were also sidelined.
And connection will be just what Kiel and Columbro will need from their selected group if they're to end North Ballarat's middle season blitz.
Roosters’ coach Brendan McCartney is well aware he'll have to earn a top three finish the hard way with four remaining games against tough opposition - Sebastopol (A), Darley (A), Sunbury (H) and East Point (H).
The availability of the VFL affiliates at both clubs, like it or not, will have a bearing.
The Burras’ Jay Dahlhaus (Werribee) has had an immediate impact in his two games with nine goals, admittedly against the bottom two sides.
For North Ballarat, Jamie Quick (Geelong), Sam Glover (Collingwood) and Jack Riding (Werribee) all share match winning qualities that would pose a headache for the Burras’ hierarchy in the event of their selection.
North Ballarat looks the more settled for mine and on that alone, will lean to McCartney's army in a tight one.
Scoop’s tip: North Ballarat