BFNL Weekend Preview - Round 18, 2023
There is all to play for as we head into the final home & away weekend of the 2023 BFNL season. Who will secure an elusive finals spot, with a number of places in the top six still up for grabs!
North Ballarat
vs
East Point
SATURDAY AUGUST 26TH - 2.15PM @ MARS STADIUM
Last time they met - East Point 95 def. North Ballarat 75 (Eastern Oval, Round 5 2023)
With North Ballarat's fourth placing a lock for this year’s BFNL finals, don't expect any favours forthcoming for East Point who must win to give themselves any chance of moving into the top six.
Brendan McCartney's record at Mars Stadium since his appointment at the start of 2021 is formidable at 16-3 but will account for very little as Jackson Merrett and his visiting party plan all their efforts to upset the trend with a season on-the-line performance.
The Roosters are coming off the bye and will look to resemble something close to their best ahead of a do-or-die elimination final next week. Despite winning eight of their last 10 games, the Roosters have lost two of their last three albeit against teams above them in Darley and Sebastopol.
The Kangas will take some confidence into the game knowing they have already beaten the Roosters back in Round 5 this year.
That, along with the standout form of mid/forward Jordy Johnston and support crew Joe Dodd, Matty Johnston, Joel Van Meel and Cam Lovig provide a mounting case for the visitors.
Merrett (16 goals), Brad Whittaker (26), Bryson McDougall (25), Liam Canny (21) and JJ (21) are capable of kicking a winning score, and will surely keep the hosts honest on the goal front.
But with top talent Jack Riding, Sam Glover, Jamie Quick, Stewart Crameri and Riley Polkinghorne all likely inclusions for North Ballarat, the task for the visiting Kangas will be far easier said than done.
Scoop’s tip: North Ballarat
Lake Wendouree
vs
Melton
SATURDAY AUGUST 26TH - 2.15PM @ CE BROWN RESERVE
Last time they met - Melton 95 def. Lake Wendouree 20 (MacPherson Park, Round 11 2023)
Expect Melton to mirror its 2022 minor premiership with a 14th win of the home and away season when they take on the Lakers at CE Brown Reserve.
Ironically, it was the Lakers at MacPherson Park in Round 18 last year that Aaron Tymms’ Bloods claimed the minor premiership with a 122-point win. While there's a certain inevitability about Saturday's result, what fortunes lay ahead for the Bloods are not so clear.
Sure, they only lost two games this season, both to the Devils, but there's seems to be a certain level of mortality about them (unlike last year) despite seemingly 'holding the wood' over all teams, bar Dan Jordan's men.
This hitout against the Lakers will give Tymms' reigning premiers a welcoming opportunity to fine tune their touch and any other concerns they may have applying recent methods.
Those variables aside, options to manage any player niggles will be soaked up by the brains trust ahead of a qualifying final next week against Darley (likely) or Sebastopol.
Some will be required to work through it, others granted the week off. Either way, the minor premiership looms as another feather in Tymms' cap, albeit his final year in charge.
For the Lakers, it's been another tough year on the win/loss front with recent results giving every indication season’s end is near.
Let's hope they can find the energy to give interim coach Tim Shearer a response worthy of his efforts following the mid-season departure of Jack Fitzpatrick.
Scoop’s tip: Melton
Darley
vs
Sunbury
SATURDAY AUGUST 26TH - 2.15PM @ DARLEY PARK
Last time they met - Sunbury 54 def. by Darley 110
(Clarke Oval, Round 5 2023)
Despite the Devils (second) and Lions (fifth) current standing inside the top six, there's a little more at stake than meets the eye when these two rivals meet at Darley Park.
For the hosts, securing a prized double chance that comes with a second-place finish can only be guaranteed with a 14th win of the season given third placed Sebastopol (12 wins) are breathing down their necks aiming to bridge the Devils’ one game and 14% advantage.
Sunbury (151%) on the other hand sit level on 32 points with Redan (6th-135%) and East Point (7th-121%). The only way Sunbury can miss finals will be in the rare event of a loss and wins by Redan over Sebastopol and East Point over North Ballarat, with both on the road.
Tipping both coaches will have appointed an eager eye to follow the progress of those games and adjust accordingly.
Putting all the hearsay to one side for a moment, the Devils head into the Lions meet with recent home wins over Melton, North Ballarat and Sebastopol. Sunbury however, while competitive for long periods have won just three of their last nine games including three losses on the trot.
Expect both sides to bring the heat early and depending on what is unfolding around the BFNL in real time will determine how long the burners remain on high. For carrying a healthy list into finals will be deemed of paramount importance given the even spread of competition.
Scoop’s tip: Darley
Sebastopol
vs
Redan
SATURDAY AUGUST 26TH - 2.15PM @ MARTY BUSCH RESERVE
Last time they met - Redan 57 def. by Sebastopol 62
(City Oval, Round 9 2023)
Fact. Sebastopol are yet to be beaten at home all year and are yet to be headed at halftime in any of their 12 games played in Ballarat.
When you throw in they're yet to field (arguably) their best 22 on paper, the chances of the Burra breaking their near 50-year premiership drought look promising.
The Burras’ five game winning streak will be put to the test when they face Redan (6th) who are yet to consolidate a finals berth.
While Gary Learmonth's group can finish as high as fifth at the expense of Sunbury, a heavy loss could see them fall as far as seventh, pending the result of East Point's effort against North Ballarat at Mars Stadium.
Redan have had their chances to lock in the prized sixth spot but have won just three of their last six games, two of those against Melton South.
On the other hand, the hosts have been ultra consistent, having dropped just three games for the season to Melton, North Ballarat and Darley. Strangely, despite playing off in last year’s grand final, the Burra copped the Bloods just once.
Anyway, if Redan can deliver something similar to their Round 9 performance against the Burra (won three quarters), surely they're a chance of an upset.
On paper, the Lions read a formidable combination. But with the Burra expecting Riley O'Keefe, Jay Dahlhaus and Jed Hill to return, the home side looks ominous, enabling chance to be peaking at the right time.
If Redan can get it done, they will surely have earned their place, but the numbers and scope favoring the Burra suggest Kiel and Columbro’s men won't be willing to part on any momentum ahead of finals, with a slim second place finish still on the radar with the Burra needing need Sunbury to beat Darley comfortably.
Scoop’s tip: Sebastopol
Bacchus Marsh
vs
Ballarat
SATURDAY AUGUST 26TH - 2.15PM @ MADDINGLEY PARK
Last time they met - Ballarat 72 def. Bacchus Marsh 31 (Alfredton Oval, Round 11 2023)
While much of the BFNL's attention leans toward how the top seven sides shape the final six on the last day of the home and away season, spare a thought for the unofficial battle for eighth when the Cobras host the Swans at Maddingley Park.
While only percentage separates these two sides, it's the Cobras (at home) who occupy the box seat finishing off their season with six wins including their last four on the trot.
Winning out of turn has been rare for these two despite wins over Sunbury (both) and Redan (Ballarat). But it's the gap between the Swans’ best and worst that has left some unconvinced this season.
They have managed just the one win on the road for the season (Melton South) from seven outings and meet the Cobras who refuse to put the cue away ahead of time.
The Swans have seven losses for the season in the 45+ points range including two over the 100-point mark. Alternatively, the Cobras have four defeats beyond 45 points with just one of those toppling the ton (Round 1 v Sebastopol).
Momentum and an all-important home ground advantage at this time of year will favour the Cobras despite the likelihood of them losing key personnel back to the Coates Talent League’s final round.
The Swans are more than capable of winning, the list will tell you at as you scroll looking for reason.
But there's a positive vibe sweeping the Cobras at the moment and a win in front of their faithful, a fourth in a row will consolidate the club’s direction even further as well and truly on the right track.
Scoop’s tip: Bacchus Marsh