BFNL Weekend Preview - Round 4, 2024
With early season form lines starting to take shape, Round 4 presents as an opportunity for teams to continue their winning ways and rectify slow starts.
Bacchus Marsh
vs
Sunbury
SATURDAY MAY 4TH - 2.15PM @ MADDINGLEY PARK
- BFNL MATCH OF THE ROUND LIVE WITH COMMENTARY FROM 2PM VIA THE BFNL MATCH CENTRES -
Last time they met - Sunbury 79 def. by Bacchus Marsh 81 (Clarke Oval, Round 17 2023)
Dennis Armfield’s Cobras will look to jump the Lions early, coming off their bye in round three, aiming toward a first half-time lead of the season.
The visitors arrive with a sprightly 2-0 record under Matthew White and will like their chances to make it a hattrick of wins on a firm deck expected at Maddingley Park.
The midfield battle provides plenty of interest with Lions trio Josh Guthrie, Jake Egan and Ben Cameron up against welcoming party Jake McCreery, Tyson Shea and Josh Huxtable.
Just who can extricate best from a high number of predicted stoppages at the feet of Fraser Ampulski and Luke Goetz will have a large say in the territory game and inevitably the result.
While both sides provide varied options forward, it's Lions’ lead up spearhead Jake Sutton that looms the Cobras’ greatest challenge.
The snowy haired former Essendon VFL listed player has 11 goals already from his opening two games.
Rye Penny is the Cobras’ best defender but given his rebound attacking style it may be a case of 'robbing Peter to pay Paul' entertaining the unlikely match-up.
The Cobras have a significant presence forward of their own with Jake Owen, Joel Freeman and Isaac Nixon all aerially capable.
Fans of the red, yellow and black will be hopeful they have their kicking boots on providing every chance kicking a winning score.
Tipping you'll need to be in the 80 points range at the final siren to earn the 'W'.
PLAYER WATCH
Ben Cameron (Sunbury #26)
newcomer averaging 25 disposals. Ranks #2 in the comp for ground ball gets, #7 for hard ball gets, #8 for handballs. Handy type.
Jake McCreery (Bacchus Marsh #20)
Ranks #2 in the comp for Pressure and #1 at the club for inside 50s.
SCOOP’S TIP
Sunbury
Redan
vs
Sebastopol
SATURDAY MAY 4TH - 2.15PM @ CITY OVAL
Last time they met - Sebastopol 59 def. by Redan 79 (Marty Busch Reserve, Round 18 2023)
The Lions host Sebastopol at City Oval in one of the more evenly weighted games in Ballarat for the round.
While I’m prepared to afford Sebastopol a 'mulligan' for their disappointing loss to East Point under the lights at Eastern Oval last week I won't be going as far as tipping them.
With a kind draw this season I still expect the Burra to feature at the business end.
They're not in the Melton conversation we know that, but not many are so let's temper expectations a bit.
This match will tell us even more about where the Burra are at. Sure, personnel reads well on paper but what is their ceiling? Can the 30-50 game players get any better, it's not a given.
Footy is a hard game to play let alone developing into an impact player week in week out after 38 hours on the tools.
Redan too have a promising group of progressive types with even less experience than their Burra counterparts and will again be asked for the 'impact' effort alongside senior bodies Lachie George, Grant Bell, Patrick Fitzgibbon and Daniel Bond.
The Lions have been without star recruit Lachie Bond and dangerous forward Lachie McLean for their opening three games (W1L2) so now looms as good as time as any for Tony Locker's men to earn valuable premiership points.
Easier said than done however as was proven the case at their last meeting at Marty Busch Reserve ahead of last year’s finals series when the Lions won by 20 points.
PLAYER WATCH
Rory Gunsser (Redan #8)
Left foot distributer - comp rank #10 for disposals averaging 25.7 inc. 20 of those kicks.
Lachlan Cassidy (Sebastopol #12)
'Elite' numbers in most areas including comp rank #1 for tackles, #3 for handballs, #4 for pressure, #6 for score involvements, #7 for clearances.
SCOOP’S TIP
Redan
North Ballarat
vs
Lake Wendouree
SATURDAY MAY 4TH - 2.15PM @ MARS STADIUM
Last time they met – Lake Wendouree 51 def. by North Ballarat 119 (CE Brown Reserve, Round 10 2023)
After a tough draw to start the season, Brendan McCartney's one win, one loss Roosters get an opportunity to consolidate with a win over the Lakers (0-3) at Mars Stadium.
Despite missing a handful of top end talent the frugal Roosters barely gave an inch to last year's minor (Melton) and major Premiers (Darley) winning four of the eight quarters including a win.
Any side would take that, especially in the absence of key personnel.
So, what is to gain for the Roosters against the Lakers? A game spent more on their own terms for starters - so finding more ways to goal on the back of that hard work witnessed in their opening two games will enhance their threat even further.
I've no doubt the Lakers will deliver some contested resistance for periods but it's the impact of scoring either side of those periods for North Ballarat that provides the greatest means for an interesting read in the aftermath.
Expect North Ballarat to be too strong replicating a margin similar to their previous meet (68 points) and Jamie Quick to get his first bag of the season (five) and match it with a further five score involvements.
Saturday looms as the Lakers’ greatest challenge of the season in so many ways despite losses to Sebastopol, Bacchus Marsh and Ballarat in the opening three weeks. The reality is the Lakers rank 10th for average points scored, scores against, shots on goal, and quarters won.
PLAYER WATCH
Isaac Carey (North Ballarat)
Enjoying his role at wing and half back. Is top 15 in the comp for rebound 50s, defensive 50 tackles, Intercepts and knock ons.
Tom Zampatti (Lake Wendouree)
Important key tall ranks #2 in comp for throw-in clearances and #5 for hit-outs.
SCOOP’S TIP
North Ballarat
Ballarat
vs
Darley
SATURDAY MAY 4TH - 2.15PM @ ALFREDTON OVAL
Last time they met - Ballarat 31 def. by Darley 71 (Alfredton Oval, Round 1 2023)
Saturday's match up between league improvers Ballarat and the reigning premier will tell us more about Chris Maple's Swans following wins over Bacchus Marsh, Redan and the Lakers.
How the Swans progressive midfield group cope against experienced Devils’ quartet Billy Myers, Brett Bewley, Luther Baker and Matt Denham will go a long way validating the separation on the scoreboard.
The Devils will need to maintain their clearance efficiency advantage (63%-56%) over the Swans or risk being exposed on the spread.
The Swans should hold the faith, believing their group is capable of netting a big fish.
Given their 3-0 start, Saturday's opportunity in front of a home crowd looms the ideal stage to announce their 'official' arrival.
BUT, the Swans will be made to earn that right, with questions raised on all lines.
While the Swans’ abundant leg speed presents a challenge for any opposition, the Devils pose a different assignment altogether (aerially and at ground level) than Bacchus Marsh, Redan and the Lakers.
The Devils are still shifting through their gears since their dominant opening round win over East Point and will aim to peak for longer periods.
For the record, the Devils have won 22 of their last 25 BFNL games.
Swans inclusions Rhett Montgomery (Footscray VFL), Lachie Dalgleish and the availability of Tristan Maple (Footscray VFL) and Angus Bade (Footscray VFL) will only help the hosts cause, denying a versatile and formidable Devils front six led by inform duo Wil Johnson and Brady Wright.
Naturally, experienced Swans small forward Andrew Hooper will generate his usual level of attention.
PLAYER WATCH
Lewis Rinaldi (Ballarat #24)
Averaging 24 possessions per game, 14 contested (team rank #2), 7 clearances (team rank #1).
Mitch Ward (Darley #9)
Currently the Devils #1 turnover defender (#7 in the comp).
SCOOP’S TIP
Darley
East Point
vs
Melton South
SATURDAY MAY 4TH - 2.15PM @ EASTERN OVAL
Last time they met - East Point 192 def. Melton South 44 (Eastern Oval, Round 2 2023)
It's back to the drawing board again for Travis Hodgson's Melton South following the surprise inclusion of four top end Ovens and Murray league players in last week’s 10 goal loss to Redan.
Given the cameo nature of their selections last week we can hardly call them genuine 'outs' but I’m sure Kangas’ coach Joe Carmody is a little relieved his group has been spared the match up.
In reality, it's a case of how far the Kangas on Saturday at Eastern Oval, a venue the Panthers have been on the wrong end of some big losses in recent years.
Will we see the first big bag of 10 goals from one individual? Kangas’ trio Jordy Johnston, Bryson McDougall and Strahan Robinson are the obvious front runners and more than capable.
Party stuff aside, Carmody will look to build on good habits. Sure, selflessness and pressure in the front half are on his radar but it’s the back six and their organisation that will be his biggest (season long) project.
Carmody led the Swans into a Preliminary Final in 2022 on the back of sound, organised defence and will replicate some of those traits at his new club.
For Hodgson, another 100 minutes of senior experience into his young group will aid the rebuild theme as the struggling club aims for a 'mini win' even if that be a quarter of football.
The Panthers won 1/64 quarters in 2023 and are 0/12 for the new season.
The challenge continues.
PLAYER WATCH
Jackson Merrett (East Point #1)
Relinquished of coaching duties, injury free and returned with 38 disposals last week in tough conditions.
Darby Schilder (Melton South #14)
Geelong VFL listed made solid impression first up with 20 disposals @75% including 8 marks (3 contested). Plays key back, plenty will be asked of him on Saturday.
SCOOP’S TIP
East Point