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BFNL Weekend Preview - Round 7, 2024


With a number of last year's finalists set to face-off for the first time since September action there is plenty to look forward to this weekend.


Darley

vs

Melton

SATURDAY MAY 25TH - 2.15PM @ DARLEY PARK

- BFNL MATCH OF THE ROUND LIVE WITH FULL COMMENTARY 2PM VIA BFNL MATCH CENTRE -

Last time they met - Darley 88 def. Melton 74 (Maddingley Park, Qualifying Final 2023)

Expect a monster crowd to witness the renewal of this fierce rivalry when Darley (3rd - W4L2) host Melton (2nd - W4L1).

If the game can live anywhere up to the hype, lock yourself in - we're in for a hell of a ride.

The Devils under Dan Jordan had the wood over the Bloods winning all three meets in 2023.

Prior to that you had to go back to 2017 to find any joy for the Devils, one of the club’s longest run of outs against any team since joining the BFNL in the mid to late 90's.

New Bloods’ coach Troy Scoble will have done his due diligence, having cast an eagle eye over the reigning premier for some time.

The former Geelong development coach will be fully aware of the Devils’ strengths, and gets his first opportunity (of at least two) to find a way through with arguably the best defensive and potent front half combos in the comp.

But it's the battle between the arcs that looms as Scoble’s greatest challenge.

Keeping Devils’ quintet Brett Bewley (41.5 avg disposals), Luther Baker (26.3), Billy Myers (25.5), Adam Azzopardi (20.8) and Matt Denham (23.8) in check won't be easy, a midfield combo that has had a large say in the clubs (current) 11 game winning streak on Darley Park.

On the other hand, Jordan will be the first to concede that previous results account for very little come Saturday and will have endured his own set of prioritising mid-week hoping to find a way through the league heavyweights on the rebound.

The Bloods have matchwinners at both ends and two bona fide mids of their own namely Jack Walker and Jaycob Hickey who average 26 and 27 disposals per game.

The Devils missed Brady Wright last week, his availability will be structurally crucial with his aerial presence alongside Billy Myers who has proven a handful at their previous three meets.

My leaning to the Devils is with Wright in the team and the trust in Jordan's group to resemble more of their best for longer.

Surely the Bloods will bring theirs, they have some improving to do also having won just 3/8 quarters (at home) against fellow top three contenders North Ballarat and East Point. 

TEAM WATCH
Darley
Comp rank #1 for contested possessions (168.7 avg) and contested marks (19.5 avg)

Melton
Comp rank #1 for intercept marks (20 avg) and centre clearance (13 avg)

SCOOP’S TIP
Darley


Melton South

vs

Sebastopol

SATURDAY MAY 25TH - 2.15PM @ MELTON RECREATION RESERVE

Last time they met - Melton South 39 def. by Sebastopol 194 (Melton Recreation Reserve, Round 13 2023)

Visiting Sebastopol (9th - W1 L5) will welcome the idea of celebrating a second win of the season when they meet winless Melton South (11th W0 L5).

The phrase 'better for longer' has been an ongoing struggle for both sides.

Three of the Burra’s five losses saw Tony Locker's men concede six goals or more in four quarters against Melton (twice), Bacchus Marsh and North Ballarat.

They just can't stem the flow on the run in games, I bet Lockyer would have liked the option of a 'time-out' to reset his group.

How Lockyer’s support staff in the dug-out look to stop the bleeding moving forward will be an ongoing case study.

I know the Burra have personnel issues missing up to 16 names from last year’s squad, but the show must go on.

Can the Burra find their feet and connection to trouble a few sides this year? Welcoming back Luke Kiel after a rest will be a major boost for a start.

Resembling the pressure of last week’s opening quarter and a half against North Ballarat will be the level Lockyer demands of his group.

If that can be achieved, expect the Burra to end a five-game losing streak despite their vulnerabilities.

For Travis Hodgson's Panthers, mini-wins will be the order of the day.

Given the current landscape, anything under a 100-point loss could be deemed a mini-win.

That's the unfortunate reality for a team who hasn't won a game since Round 9, 2022.

One positive for the Panthers has been the recent signing of former Collingwood/Hawthorn player Tom Phillips (now Carlton VFL listed). 

TEAM WATCH
Melton South
Comp rank #1 for defensive 50 tackles (18.4 avg)

Sebastopol
Comp rank #2 for creating turnovers

SCOOP’S TIP
Sebastopol


North Ballarat

vs

Redan

SATURDAY MAY 25TH - 2.15PM @ MARS STADIUM

Last time they met - North Ballarat 77 def. Redan 60 (Eastern Oval, Elimination Final 2023)

North Ballarat (5th W3 L2) will look to build on last week’s nine goal final term that catapulted Brendan McCartney's men to a 106-point win over Sebastopol when they host Redan (7th W3 L3).

Not too dissimilar to the age profile of the Lions, the young Roosters get another opportunity to show their talents in front of loyal and faithful fans, aiming to keep their unblemished 2024 home record intact.

McCartney conceded his boys were a little slow out of the blocks last week and won't want to give Gary Learmonth's young brigade any momentum.

The Lions will again front with no less than ten Under 19 eligible players who are making healthy progress at the level.

The surface at Mars Stadium is as good as any and will give both sides every chance to deliver on their potential.

Learmonth will look to contain the Roosters, eyeing a match-up for Jamie Quick and Ned Nash who combined for 12 goals last week.

The Quick (10 goals/3 games) match-up especially is always a tough one given his x-factor brilliance.

If anything, you need the elusive forward to aid the cause with an off day.

Cutting supply will be paramount for Learmonth against the competition’s number one ranked side for clearances (Redan #7th) and ball up clearances (Redan #7th).

If it's any consolation the Lions rank second for centre clearances behind Melton - for Redan's sake they'll hope each centre bounce has not come on the back of a Quick or Nash goal.

The midfield battle will be an interesting one.

Lions’ ruckman Taj Bond (if available) will be conceding a lot of weight to North big man Cam McCallum and will need to be smart around stoppage not getting thrown around.

Can Khy Jess, Lachie George and co deny in form trio ball magnets Riley Polkinghorne, Brock Leonard and Elliott Lamb long enough to correlate to an advantage on the scoreboard?

I'm not so sure, especially on Mars, the Roosters play the venue better than any.

Looking forward to seeing if the North Ballarat defence can put an end to Lions’ forward Grant Bell's run of multiple goal returns (8 games).  

TEAM WATCH
North Ballarat
Comp rank #1 for clearances (49.8 avg)

Redan
Have 10+ Under 19 eligible players in senior line-up

SCOOP’S TIP
North Ballarat


East Point

vs

Ballarat

SATURDAY MAY 25TH - 2.15PM @ EASTERN OVAL

Last time they met - East Point 115 def. Ballarat 63 (Eastern Oval, Round 14 2023)

East Point (4th - W4 L1) return home to consolidate their recent run of good form when they host Ballarat (8th - W3 L2) coming off the bye.

The frenetic nature of last week’s win over Melton will have instilled Joe Carmody's group with the necessary confidence capable of matching it with any opposition.

The Swans arrive without their season-to-date best player Rhett Montgomery who has left the club for the SANFL.

The loss of the rebounding half back will surely impact the win/loss prospects of Chris Maple's group, especially against teams above them - and more immediately East Point.

Sure, the Swans have improved in their second year under Maple, enough to make inroads on their last visit here that ended in a 52-point win to the Kangas.

Given the youthful age profile of the Swans, the bye was timely after big losses against bigger bodied Melton and Darley.

Given last week’s feat, the Kangas won't be any easier assignment for the Swans despite their recent freshen up.

The Kangas’ impressive work between the arcs has amounted to them being the number one team for inside 50's providing dangerous pairing Bryson McDougall and Strahan Robinson with repeat opportunities hitting the scoreboard.

The Johnston brothers and the return of Mickitja Rottumah-Onus and Jacob Brown has seen the weight of inside 50 numbers on the rise at the Kangas.

The young Swans midfield will need to be on their mettle in this uphill battle for time spent in the front half.

Unfortunately for the Swans I’m not convinced they have the personnel to post a winning score, weather permitting on Eastern Oval.

X-factor forward Andrew Hooper (6 goals) is the leading Swans goalkicker ahead of Ben Wardly and Jake Drever (5 apiece).

No Swans player is listed in the top 30 race for the Tony Lockett Medal.

East Point has three - Strahan Robinson (16), Bryson McDougall (13) and Jack Jeffrey.  

Expect the Kangas to usurp the loser of Darley (3rd) v Melton (2nd) on the BFNL ladder come 5pm Saturday.   

TEAM WATCH
East Point
Comp rank #1 for inside 50s (58.4 avg)

Ballarat
Comp rank #2 for Marks (102.6 avg) and Intercept marks (19.4 avg)

SCOOP’S TIP
East Point


Lake Wendouree

vs

Sunbury

SATURDAY MAY 25TH - 2.15PM @ C.E BROWN RESERVE

Last time they met – Lake Wendouree 46 def. by Sunbury 171 (CE Brown Reserve, Round 14 2023)

Lake Wendouree (10th - W0 L6) host an unbeaten Sunbury outift (1st - W5 L0) who are flying at the moment after recent wins over last year’s grand finalists Darley and North Ballarat.

While it's hard to make a case for the Lakers on the scoreboard, coach Rohan Brown will be asking for genuine effort, at the levels witnessed in last week’s narrow loss to Redan.

Brown went on the record saying his young team were "the most resilient group of any he has coached,". I'm tipping that resilience will be tested to maximum levels given the form of the Lions who have taken all before them under new coach Matty White.

Lakers’ defender Brayden Helyar will likely get first crack at Lions’ leading forward Jake Sutton (22 goals), while the jury is out on a like for like match up with pressure forward Mitch McLean (16).

The two have combined for 38 of Sunbury's 85 goals (44.7%). That's a fair place for the Lakers to start!

But the Lions boast aerial and ground ball quality, not to mention leg speed.

Newcomers Jordan Tentonello, Brock Landt and Ben Cameron all have 'good wheels' and make Sunbury a different proposition in degrees of difficulty to face than recent years.

The Lions’ midfield and forward group are complemented by a well organised defence led by Tyson Lever.

It won't be easy for the Lakers to score unless Bailey Thompson (14 goals) and spruik recruit Jaydon Wright can find a way through in general play.

The odds are against them.    

TEAM WATCH
Lake Wendouree
Comp rank #1 for rebound 50s (44.8 avg)

Sunbury
Comp rank #1 for marks (103 avg)

SCOOP’S TIP
Sunbury


Bacchus Marsh

Bye