BFNL Weekend Preview - Round 9, 2024
After a weekend off, coaches, players and fans alike will all be hungry to get stuck back into the action this Saturday.
Lake Wendouree
vs
Melton South
SATURDAY JUNE 15TH - 2.15PM @ CE BROWN RESERVE
- BFNL MATCH OF THE ROUND LIVE WITH FULL COMMENTARY 2PM VIA BFNL MATCH CENTRE -
Last time they met - Melton South 60 def. by Lake Wendouree 162 (Melton Recreation Reserve, Round 5 2023)
To suggest both sides need a win is an understatement.
For the Lakers, Saturday will mark 400 days since their las win, albeit a 102-point routing of the Panthers who will hit 100 weeks since their last on field success, a six-point win over the Lakers in their corresponding Round 9 fixture way back in 2022.
For one relieved outfit, the run of outs ends this weekend.
With all respect to Travis Hodgson and the Panthers, they're not in the same conversation as the Lakers despite sharing the same 'zero win' season to date.
The Lakers can boast mini wins, equating to four winning quarters from their 32, the Panthers are 0/28.
While scoring and defending has been a struggle for both sides, it's the Lakers who hold the advantage averaging 21 points MORE per game.
There's a similar pattern on the defensive front with Lakers conceding 33 points on average LESS than the Panthers.
Here's hoping the BFNL's Match of the Round is full of goals and game defining moments - enough for one team at least to savour in celebration and song.
It's all about making the most of an opportunity that beckons for these two sides in front of a keen viewing audience. Given the current landscape, who knows when the next victory salute will come.
For The Record
Despite ranking 3rd (Lakers) and 4th (Panthers) for average hitouts per game, it does not correlate to other aerial gains with the clubs ranking 10th and #11th in the competition for contested marks and intercept marks.
Lakers’ utility Bailey Thompson has 16 (comp rank #10) of the Lakers’ 54 season goals (30 %).
Scoop’s tip
Lake Wendouree
Redan
vs
East Point
SATURDAY JUNE 15TH - 2.15PM @ CITY OVAL
Last time they met - Redan 78 def. by East Point 115 (City Oval, Round 12 2023)
It felt all clubs welcomed the Kings Birthday break, but if there was one I had to nominate as a possible exception, it would most certainly be East Point.
Since the Kangas’ bye in Round 2 they've won six games on the trot inflicting Melton and Sunbury with their only losses on the way.
Over the period Joe Carmody's Kangas have averaged near 114 points per game, conceding just 50.5 (avg per game) in the process.
If Gary Learmonth's Redan were looking for flaws in the Kangas camp, maybe something as simple as a break in continuity for the Kangas could provide an edge, especially early.
If the Lions could in fact get the jump, momentum can do wonderous things, especially for a young group that has double figure representation from their Under 19 and Under 17 stocks.
On the flipside I fear for a young Lions group the break has invigorated the Kangas even further.
Their best is very good.
We've known that at the coal face and forward of the ball for a while, but the assurance found now behind the ball in the name of Jacob Brown and Jackson Merrett gives a new look for the Kangas despite their familiarity and experience.
Bryson McDougall, Strahan Robinson and Jack Jeffrey make up just part of the problems that lie ahead for the Lions given the Johnston brothers, Mickitja Rottumah-Onus and Joe Dodd's form through the midfield.
Needless to add, all are goalkicking mids (27 goals combined).
Learmonth will look for further progress from his young group as another timely footy audit presents in the name of East Point.
Excited for the potential debut of star recruit Lachie Bond (foot) who has not been seen since his four goal highlights reel against Drysdale in a pre-season practice match.
Lachie McLean (knee) who hasn't played all season is also in the mix for a return in a possible double boost for the Lions.
For The Record
While East Point rank #1 for average clearances per game (Redan #8) and #2 for contested ball (Redan #10), Lions midfielder Khy Jess is currently the #1 ranked player in the BFNL for (avg) contested possessions (22 per game).
Scoop’s tip
East Point
North Ballarat
vs
Ballarat
SATURDAY JUNE 15TH - 2.15PM @ MARS STADIUM
Last time they met - North Ballarat 79 def. Ballarat 40 (Mars Stadium, Round 12 2023)
If Chris Maple's young Swans have any aspirations toppling North Ballarat at Mars Stadium, a good start hitting the scoreboard will be paramount.
The hosts have won 21/25 games at the venue since Brendan McCartney took over in 2021.
Ironically Ballarat (2022) was one of those four sides over the journey to upset the narrative, but it will be a much younger Swans outfit endeavouring to upset the winning trend of the Roosters (at home) and the pattern of conviction that comes with it.
Just scoring against the miserly North Ballarat defence has been a struggle for all opponents at Mars Stadium.
Since the start of 2023 the Roosters are 10 wins, two losses, conceding an average just shy of 48 points per game.
Given the cooler conditions forecasted, expect goals, especially for the visitors to come at a premium.
Clearly an improvement on the Swans effort here last year will earmark the bare minimum of expectation, no doubt the experienced Maple won't be beaten on what he already learnt here last year.
The Swans did lead at quarter time on that occasion and were within four points at the half.
The old 'better for longer' adage could not have been more fitting in the aftermath as McCartney's army extended after the break booting seven goals to two.
In the here and now, can the Swans marking game unsettle North Ballarat who are so accountable behind the ball?
The Swans will want to ensure their link up by foot is in order to find a way through especially in the absence of Rhett Montgomery (SANFL).
The Swans are not without a prizefighter’s chance, but I expect the pressure from the hosts at the coalface to prove the overwhelming difference.
The Roosters still have a few important cogs to return - namely Jamie Quick and Simon McCartin. Their presence only enhances the Roosters 'warm favorites' tag.
For The Record
Ballarat rank #1 for average marks per game (103), North Ballarat 10th (67). On the flipside North Ballarat rank #2 for clearances (48.3), Ballarat 7th (42.9)
Scoop’s tip
North Ballarat
Sunbury
vs
Sebastopol
SATURDAY JUNE 15TH - 2.15PM @ CLARKE OVAL
Last time they met - Sebastopol 87 def. Sunbury 60 (Marty Busch Reserve, Round 10 2023)
The King’s Birthday break was timely for these two sides amid a climbing injury toll ahead of their Round 9 clash at the Clarke Oval.
While the Burras’ on field woes, largely beyond their control, has attracted varying degrees of scrutiny, Sunbury copped some misfortune of their own with injuries to Mitch Lewis, Jake Egan, Nathan Doyle and earlier, season ending ACL tear for Tom Scanlon.
Ben Cameron (Coburg) and Harry Minton-Connell (Williamstown) remain in the VFL.
The loss of personnel surely played a role in the Lions’ first loss of the season on the road against the Kangas in Round 8.
Needless to add, Matty White's group was gallant in defeat despite trailing at every change.
Conceding periods of four and five goals in succession really was the difference.
Just what resemblance of each side’s best 22 we see on Saturday will surely play its own part but given the depth of the Lions and season returns of the Burra to date on the win/loss front, it's hard to entertain a conversation in the 'upset' camp.
But that notion will account for very little to Burra leader Tony Lockyer who is fully aware of where his team is at.
You have to admire the popular veteran having made little reference to the changes in personnel, that has clearly impacted the recent perennial finalists.
Sebastopol will arrive in Sunbury with every intention of winning, despite its unlikelihood.
Darley coach Dan Jordan gave the Burra some encouragement after the Devils’ 19-point win in Round 8 suggesting Lockyer's group will test, if not upset a few sides on the way home.
For Matthew White's Sunbury, it will be all about maintaining their good habits that led them to a promising 6-1 start to the season ahead of a Round 10 blockbuster against Melton.
Special mention to Lions’ forward Mitch McLean who is having a breakout season. His 24 goals to date (comp rank #4) has been complemented with 20 forward 50 tackles (Comp rank #1).
For The Record
Sunbury rank 1st for Handballs (152.7 avg per game), Sebastopol 6th (128.6). Sebastopol rank 3rd (13.4) for Back 50 tackles, Sunbury 10th (8)
Scoop’s tip
Sunbury
Melton
vs
Bacchus Marsh
SATURDAY JUNE 15TH - 2.15PM @ MACPHERSON PARK
Last time they met - Bacchus Marsh 54 def. by Melton 93 (Maddingley Park, Round 12 2023)
Flag favorites Melton will look to consolidate their recent run of good form with a win over Bacchus Marsh at MacPhersons Park.
Call this bout an entree for the Bloods ahead of their top of the table clash on the road to Sunbury in Round 10 - a chance to regroup and fine tune after the week off.
Dennis Armfield's touring Cobras will have had a fortnight to identify and plan for their toughest assignment to date. So where do you start?
Sure, Braedan Kight's 41 goals (7 games) fits the 'concern' criteria.
The Bloods’ captain is averaging a goal every 3.5 disposals in 2024 which is truly remarkable for a 16 disposal player. The damage is not limited there either from the x-factor talent.
While Kight is shy of six feet in height, he leads the competition for marks inside 50 (5.1 avg per game), goal involvements (7.9) and ranks 6th for score involvements (9.9).
At the other end you have a dominant Bloods’ back six led by Jordy Cotter who ranks #1 at the club for kicks, efficiency by foot, marks, intercept marks and intercept possessions.
Only Sunbury's Tyson Lever has taken more intercept marks than Cotter. Keeping the ball away from him despite a clear message will be easier said than done.
The Cobras will need a 'spike' in most areas to compete against the relentless Bloods.
Jake Owen's importance is not capped by his contested marking ability alone (Comp rank #2). The star forward ranks #7 in the comp for both goal involvements (6.3 per game) and score involvements (9.6) - worthy of a bona fide match up from the Scoble camp.
Ruckman Luke Goetz leads the Cobras clearly for intercept marks ahead of defenders Jack Parente, Simon La Franchi and Collingwood VFL listed recruit Rye Penny.
Expect the Cobras, like all other BFNL sides to be stretched in the air and at ground level against the competition yardstick and be made to pay on the scoreboard for their inefficiencies.
For The Record
Melton rank #1 for tackles (69.7 avg per game) and Forward 50 tackles (16.3), Bacchus Marsh 9th (59.7) and 8th (10) respectively. The Cobras rank #2 (16.6 avg per game) for contested marks with a slender advantage over the Bloods 5th (13.4).
Scoop’s tip
Melton