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BFNL Weekend Preview - Grand Final, 2024


The wait is over.

Two of the competitions best performed teams in 2024 will go head-to-head for the McDonald’s BFNL premiership cup at City Oval on Saturday.


Melton

vs

East Point

SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 21ST - 2.30PM @ CITY OVAL

- RED ONION LIVE VISION WITH FULL COMMENTARY FROM 2PM VIA BFNL MATCH CENTRE -

2024 Head-to-Head meetings
Melton 78 def. by East Point 83 (MacPherson Park, Round 6)

Melton 63 def. East Point 51 (Darley Park, Qualifying Final)

On form alone, there's no two sides more deserving of a chance securing the time honoured silverware. 

The Bloods, under new coach Troy Scoble, have been a model of consistency having won 15 of 16 home and away games, plus two finals, marching into their third grand final in the last five completed seasons.

Not to be outdone, East Point went through the home and away season with 14 wins in a row but have had to endure three 'down to the wire' finals enroute to the grand final including an unforgettable 150 minute extra-time win over Darley in last week’s prelim.

In fact, it was the Kangas’ sixth game in a row against top six opposition, the grand final will mark number seven in as many weeks.

Recently crowned BFNL Coach of the Year, Joe Carmody, will need to extract something special if his boys can go back to the well, restore energy levels and execute against a ruthless Bloods’ outfit who have been sitting back watching everything unfold on the back of a week off.

For the record, Melton's last six games against top six opposition has been spread over 91 days, a much easier preparation on the body.

But what say of the mind?

Carmody will surely channel the advantages of a gruelling preparation adopting the old theory 'iron sharpens iron'.

The former Ballarat Swans coach has no other choice.

Kangas fans can be guaranteed this messaging will be well received by a core group of experienced leaders led by Matty Johnston who will still be buzzing after his Henderson Medal crowning on Monday night and Jackson Merrett who will endeavour to represent, spreading the optimism.

Ambition is one thing, execution another.

I know the Kangas have had terrible conditions to endure over the last month but when system and shape take a back seat to 'territory gain' for long enough it can be unsettling, especially if a fine day lands upon us.

System is rinse, repeat, execute, trust week in, week out - the Bloods’ 'one wood' essentially.

Something tells me the more recent version of the Kangas have had to prioritise their time more in the recovery space.

The Bloods are all on the same page, their exits look clean and energised.

Handball give and receive options are abundant, their foot skills, especially in transition, exemplary.

I fear for the Kangas defending the Bloods on the spread.

Scoble's unit will look like they're running on top of the ground for long periods, the Kangas I hasten to add, through it given an arduous last seven weeks.

I wish the Kangas all the best, but I truly believe they're up against it despite being the only side to have downed the Bloods in 2024.

It would be a monumental achievement for Carmody and his talent laden group to win a third flag for the club in the last five completed seasons but given the prep it looks a tough ask.

Unfortunately, Ferrari's need fuel too!

The Bloods will not take anything for granted.

Under Scoble, nothing is complete until the final siren on grand final day.

They'll be made to earn everything that comes their way I assure you.

If indeed, that is in the form of a premiership cup, what a united, emotional accomplishment that would be capping an otherwise challenging year for the Bloods loyal and faithful.   

    

THE FORM GUIDE
Last six games v top six opposition

Melton

 

East Point

6

Wins

4

0

Losses

2

73

Points For Avg

74*

43

Points Against Avg

59*

PRESSURE RATING

4

Wins

1

2

Losses

5

133.5

Average

114.7

QUARTER X QUARTER BREAKDOWN

W4 L2 (+28)

Q1

W4 L2 (+66)

W5 L1 (+63)

Q2

W3 L3 (+4)

W5 L1 (+59)

Q3

W4 L2 (+19)

W4 L2 (+29)

Q4

W3 L3 (+3)*

W18 L6 (+179)

Total

W14 L10 (+92)

*Not including extra-time

NOTE

Melton has kept their opponents to one goal or less in 14/24 sample size quarters.

Melton have been held to one goal or less in 6/24 sample size quarters

East Point has kept their opponents to one goal or less in 11/24 sample size quarters.

East Point have been held to one goal or less in 5/24 sample size quarters.

PLAYER WATCH

DEFENDERS
Melton: Adrian Monitto (#45), Riley Walker (#29) and Lachie Phillips (#9) are the genesis in transition for the Bloods. Monitto and Walker especially provide the spread, run, carry and distribution in the absence of the doubtful Jordy Cotter (#4) and will stretch the ground, making it uncomfortable for the Kangas.

East Point: Jackson Merrett (#1) and Jacob Brown (#4) are the experience and cornerstone of the Kangas’ defence. Merrett ranks first in the comp uncontested marks, third for marks, eigth for effective kicks and fourth for overall kicks. Merrett is the go-to distributor. Brown, not dissimilar to Merrett ranks fourth in the comp for effective kicks, seventh for kicks, fourth for marks AND second for intercept marks. What is also worthy of note is Brown ranks 24th in the comp for handball receives.  

MIDFIELDERS
Melton: Jaycob Hickey (#10) averages 27.4 disposals, ranks eighth in the comp for clearances and 11th for goal involvements while Jack Walker (#11) averages 26.1 disposals, ranks in the top 10 for contested possessions and hard ball gets.

East Point: Matty Johnston (#7) the 2024 Henderson Medallist ranks first in the comp for contested possessions and second for disposals. Johnston also features in the top 10 for a host of other KPIs and ranks elite in all areas when the Kangas have possession of the ball. After a third place finish in the Henderson Medal Mickitja Rotumah-Onus (#2) ranks among the top 25 in the comp for clearances, contested possessions, hard ball gets, ground ball, goal assists/involvements and handballs. 

FORWARDS
Melton: The 2024 Tony Lockett Medallist, Braedan Kight (#7), has kicked 78 goals in 2024. Ryan Carter (#23) is fourth on the goalkicking table with 43.

East Point: Bryson McDougall (#12) is second in the league for goals with 72. McDougall has taken more marks I50 than other player in the BFNL and ranks second for total contested marks. Strahan Robinson (#30) has 32 goals and ranks elite for contested marks and marks I50 (9th).

FINAL WORD - TIPS AND MARGINS

Scoop (BFNL) - Melton 30 points

Tony Lockyer (Sebastopol) - Melton 23 pts

Dan Jordan (Darley) - Melton 24 pts

Gary Learmonth (Redan) - Melton 12 pts

Chris Maple (Ballarat) - Melton 17 pts

Dennis Armfield (Bacchus Marsh) - Melton 17 pts

Brendan McCartney (North Ballarat) - East Point 4 pts

Rohan Brown (Lake Wendouree) - Melton 24 pts

Matty White (Sunbury) - Melton 28 pts

Travis Hodgson (Melton South) - East Point 3 pts