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BFNL Weekend Preview - Round 5, 2025


There will be one eye on premiership favouritism ahead of this weekend with some of the big contenders set to face off, while at the other end of the ladder an inaugural 'W' on the board could kick start a team's season.


Darley

vs

Ballarat

SATURDAY MAY 10TH - 2.15PM @ DARLEY PARK

KEY STATS
All matches:
Darley 29, Ballarat 13

Last win at Darley:
Darley 2019, Ballarat 2022

Last three matches:
2022 - (Semi @ City Oval) Ballarat 16.9.105 d Darley 16.8.104
2023 - Darley 10.11.71 d Ballarat 3.13.31 @ Ballarat
2024 - Darley 18.11.119 d Ballarat 8.7.55 @ Ballarat

Saturday’s clash at Darley Park sees two sides at different ends of the momentum spectrum — with the Devils riding high after a dominant Round 4 performance, and Ballarat searching for answers after a bruising second-half fadeout.

It’s the first time in four seasons that these two will square off twice during the home and away fixture, and although Darley have had the upper hand in their last two meetings, there’s still a bit of unfinished business between the pair — none more memorable than the 2022 Semi Final classic where the Swans pinched a one-point win.

But history at Darley Park doesn’t favour the visitors.

Ballarat have walked away with the four points on just four of their 19 visits to the ground.

If they’re to re-write that stat, the Swans will need a serious four-quarter effort — something they didn’t produce last week when Sunbury dismantled them after halftime.

Winning the contested ball and cutting off Darley’s clean possession chains will be key, particularly in the middle where the Devils' midfield have been damaging.

Ballarat have shown gradual improvement in defensive pressure, with Zac Haintz holding firm down back and Fraser Perkins bringing tackle pressure around the contest.

But to challenge the Devils, they’ll need to lift their work rate across the ground and limit Darley’s ability to control the air through marks and transition.

Coming off an ample win over Lake Wendouree, Dan Jordan’s Devils look to be hitting their stride. For Ballarat, it’s about rediscovering theirs — and fast.

Tip: Darley


Redan

vs

Melton

SATURDAY MAY 10TH - 2.15PM @ CITY OVAL

KEY STATS
All matches:
Redan 24, Melton 20, drawn 1

Last win at Redan:
Redan 2014, Melton 2024

Last three matches:
2022 - Melton 15.8.98 d Redan 13.10.88 @ Redan
2023 - Melton 20.12.132 d Redan 9.11.65 @ Redan
2024 - Melton 14.8.92 d Redan 4.1.25 @ Redan

Fresh off registering their first win of the season, Redan now face a big test early days in the competition — a clash with the reigning premiers and unbeaten Melton.

While Round 4 delivered much-needed relief for the Lions, Melton’s narrow escape against North Ballarat was likely a bit too close for comfort.

That result may only sharpen the Bloods' focus heading into this one.

Redan’s ability to stay in the contest has been underpinned by strong individual form.

Brody Pope continues to impress with his ball-winning ability and work rate, while Jake Connolly’s consistent output across the first month has been a key pillar for the Lions.

But as they prepare to take on one of the competition’s most disciplined outfits, it will take far more than a few standout performances — it’ll require a genuine team-wide lift.

Both sides have shown no trouble in generating inside 50s, but it’s what happens next that may well decide the outcome.

Redan rank lowest in the competition for forward entry efficiency — a stat that simply must improve if they’re to keep this close. Melton’s polished ball movement and dangerous forward setup will take advantage of any wastefulness.

For the Bloods, Jaycob Hickey continues to be one of the quiet drivers of their success, linking play with precision.

Blake Souter’s relentless tackling pressure and regular score involvements have also made him a tough matchup for any side.

Melton will be out to keep their perfect record intact, while Redan will view this as a huge opportunity to take a big scalp and climb closer to the top six.

Tip: Melton


North Ballarat

vs

Bacchus Marsh

SATURDAY MAY 10TH - 2.15PM @ MARS STADIUM

KEY STATS
All matches: North Ballarat 50, Bacchus Marsh 11

Last win at North:
North Ballarat 2024, Bacchus Marsh 2017

Last three matches:
2023 - North Ballarat 18.13.121 d Bacchus Marsh 7.11.53 @ Bacchus Marsh
2024 - North Ballarat 11.13.79 d Bacchus Marsh 9.6.60 @ Bacchus Marsh
2024 - North Ballarat 17.14.116 d Bacchus Marsh 5.9.39 @ North Ballarat

Still chasing their first win of the 2025 season, North Ballarat will be hoping home ground history is on their side as they host Bacchus Marsh in what despite early days, looms as a crucial game for both teams’ finals ambitions.

The Roosters have a dominant record over the Cobras at home, having won 27 of their 31 meetings, with Bacchus Marsh last tasting success on North’s turf back in 2017.

With both sides expected to be genuine top six contenders, this clash holds more weight than just four points.

For the Cobras, a win would provide a handy buffer inside the top six — especially with games against Ballarat and Melton coming up.

For Clint Proctor’s North Ballarat, banking four points here would set up a critical next fortnight, with more winnable matches to come against teams outside the top tier.

If North are to get it done, they’ll need to lean into their speed and movement, particularly through the middle of the ground, to sidestep Bacchus Marsh’s trademark tackling pressure and defensive setup.

Improving their efficiency inside 50 will also be a key focus — the Roosters will want more marks inside forward 50 and better conversion than what they managed last week in their loss to Melton.

On the other hand, Dennis Armfield’s Cobras will be looking to patch up their third quarter fade-outs, where they’re yet to get the better of their opposition — and find ways to win more hard ball and contested possession around the ground.

With both teams having plenty to gain, Saturday’s clash could be a defining early chapter in their 2025 campaigns.

Tip: Bacchus Marsh


Sebastopol

vs

Lake Wendouree

SATURDAY MAY 10TH - 2.15PM @ MARTY BUSCH RESERVE

KEY STATS
All matches:
Sebastopol 14, Lake Wendouree 36

Last win at Sebastopol:
Sebastopol 2024, Lake Wendouree 2017

Last three matches:
2023 - Sebastopol 15.12.102 d Lake Wendouree 8.8.56 @ Lake Wendouree
2024 - Sebastopol 17.16.118 d Lake Wendouree 5.8.38 @ Sebastopol
2024 - Sebastopol 11.11.77 d Lake Wendouree 3.7.25 @ Lake Wendouree

It’s a big opportunity for both Sebastopol and Lake Wendouree to finally get on the board in 2025 as two winless sides meet in a crucial early-season clash.

The Burra came agonisingly close last week, falling just two points short of Redan in a contest they were in up to their necks all day.

While still chasing that first win, Sebastopol have shown flashes of finals-quality football — now it’s about sustaining that across four quarters.

For Lake Wendouree, fast starts have been encouraging, but their inability to sustain effort beyond quarter time has rued their chances week after week.

After being blown away in the second half against Darley, the Lakers must focus on stringing together a consistent, competitive performance.

Sebastopol have taken plenty of marks so far this season, but they’re being let down at the source.

To take control of this contest, they'll need to lift in contested ball and improve their forward entries.

Connecting more cleanly with target man Hugo Papst — who has the ability to make a real impact — could go a long way to unlocking scoreboard pressure.

The Lakers have found a big contributor in the ruck in Tom Zampatti, who continues to dominate the hit-outs.

The challenge now is capitalising on his work — gaining possession, maintaining control, and using the ball with more efficiency going forward.

Neither side would have pencilled in Round 5 sitting 9th and 10th on the ladder, but it’s the Burra who have held up better in terms of percentage and competitive consistency.

A win here could spark their campaign and lift them back into the mix for a top six spot.

Tip: Sebastopol


Sunbury

vs

East Point

SATURDAY MAY 10TH - 1.15PM @ CLARKE OVAL

KEY STATS
All matches:
Sunbury 18, East Point 17

All at Clarke Oval:
Sunbury 13, East Point 6

Last three matches:
2023 - Sunbury 15.19.109 d East Point 4.5.29 @ Sunbury
2024 - East Point 16.6.102 d Sunbury 12.10.82 @ East Point
2024 - East Point 15.5.95 d Sunbury 7.8.50 @ Sunbury

There’s no place like home for Sunbury.

The Lions will be out to defend their record this weekend as they host an unbeaten East Point side in a clash that could have major top four implications.

While the Roos managed to get the better of the Lions on their own turf last season, the head-to-head history slightly favours Sunbury, especially at Clarke Oval - where the home side has consistently found another gear.

East Point enter Round 5 without a blemish, though their upcoming fortnight — featuring both Sunbury and Melton — will truly test their early credentials.

Meanwhile, Sunbury have only dropped their season opener to Darley and have been trending upward since, especially on the stats sheet.

The Lions currently lead the competition for disposals, hard ball gets, and intercept possessions — numbers that reflect their clean use across the ground.

However, the two teams are almost neck and neck in clearances, inside 50s, and contested possessions, making this clash one likely to be decided by moments of efficiency and pressure, rather than dominance.

Both sides typically start strong, so whoever can edge ahead early will have the advantage.

Sunbury’s forward pairing of Jake Sutton and Jake Egan — fresh off five goals apiece — will be major threats.

The Roos’ defensive duo of Liam Howard and Jacob Brown will need to be at their absolute best to curb their influence.

Injury setbacks to Paddy Hannaford and Max Wilson will force East Point into some structural changes, with Joe Dodd expected to return to bolster the side.

A win here won’t just be about four points — it could cement a foothold in the top four and signal early intent for the premiership race.

Tip: Sunbury