This next chapter in this time-honoured local derby will tell us more about Bacchus Marsh in the context of their season, ahead of a timely footy audit against the ladder leaders.

The Cobras are travelling well at the moment having won their last three games, averaging a fraction over 30 scoring shots per game.

Given they're up against the competition’s number one ranked attack and defence, making the most of opportunities going forward will be crucial to their winning chances.

Despite the Devils’ 11 game unbeaten run since the season opener, Cobras’ coach Dennis Armfield and his leaders should have the genuine belief this assignment is not beyond them.

At their last three meets at Darley Park the difference has been no more than 12 points giving every indication the ground should hold no fears for the visitors executing a plan.

In fact, it should be easier for Armfield to implement given the broader dimensions of Darley Park than their narrow home over the bridge at Maddingley.

Forward of the ball the Cobras are humming with leading goal scorer Jake Owen (54 goals) and improving support cast Isaac Nixon (11), Josh Huxtable (19) and Jake McCreery (16) adding to the offensive weaponry.

The four-pronged attack make up 66% (100/152) of all Cobra goals this year.

With up to seven (favourable) changes expected for the Cobras from their previous meet in Round 3 and the Devils a little light on in retrospect, the timing for Armfield is ideal.

Furthermore, Cobras big man Luke Goetz remains the competition's number one ranked ruckman for hitouts and those to advantage.

Given the Cobras are 0-4 against top four opposition this season, at an average losing margin of 29 points, bucking the trend will require a significant peak in performance.

The Devils are blessed with an in-form, five-star midfield, a-grade defenders, x-factor leading forwards and progressive role players, validating their current standing at the top of the BFNL ladder.

A win for the Devils will surpass their previous best of 11 games straight under Dan Jordan.

The 2023 premiership coach is under no illusions every win will be made to earn having seen firsthand against the Cobras despite his 6-1 head-to-head advantage.

Scoop’s tip

Darley

The reigning premiers sit in third place on the BFNL ladder with an enviable 9-3 record ahead of their Round 13 meeting with Sebastopol.

Under Troy Scoble, the Bloods have won 27/31 games and remain in the box seat for a crack at back-to-back flags despite losing their last two games.

The reality is, it's just hard going again after ultimate success.

It's never the same, from the playing list, the health of the playing list, staying in the present and improving the output from week to week.

Coaches from all leagues and levels have gone on the record acknowledging repeat flags are a tough ask.

Scoble would agree his group have endured some of those struggles post their 2024 success.

On Saturday the reigning premiers have the opportunity to 'get back on the bike' against a side they have had the wood over for some five years or more.

The visiting party, led by Tony Lockyer will consider themselves a real live chance but will have to get it done on the road against Melton who strangely haven't won a game since June 21st. 

The Bloods should have an invigorated thirst for that winning feeling, so don't expect the Burra to receive any favours.

While the Bloods’ list has been knocked around for the most part with injury and unavailability, Scoble and his group won't be looking for that excuse to justify their means moving forward.

While the Bloods haven't done much wrong, losing three games by less than a goal, there's enough evidence, scoreboard aside, they're not travelling as well as their all-conquering 19-1 season of last year.

The Burra will be quick to pounce assuming the hunters tag, knowing they have a season of their own to keep alive.

The return of Luke Kiel and Jed Hill makes the assignment (on paper) a little more achievable - let's hope they don't get the second up blues back from injury.

The form of Hugo Papst (25 goals) provides the x-factor talent forward for Lockyer's group not seen since James Keeble's 35 goal season of 2022 - star quality.

The Bloods couldn't lose three in a row, could they?

Scoop’s tip

Melton

Unfortunately for North Ballarat, the aura of Mars Stadium has gone, and through no fault of their own.

Once considered a 50/50 game, odds weigh (for the here and now) in Sunbury's camp, given the unpredictable nature of the 2023 grand finalist's selection issues around injury and unavailability.

The reality is, Sunbury, once battlers on the road in Ballarat should have little difficulty earning the points against the up and down Roosters who are seemingly at a selection table beyond their control.

The Lions are three wins and a loss (+171) involving games in Ballarat in season 2025.

They took it up to flag fancy East Point last week at Eastern Oval despite the absence of Josh Guthrie (ankle-season) and Cody Bramble (ACL-season) while Dean Muir and Brock Landt remained overseas.

Lions’ coach Matty White conceded (paraphrasing) they were their own worst enemy at times with their inability to make the most of their opportunities and expose East Point, who were without any rotations for the second half.

Again, while sounding like a broken record, the Lions are heavily dependent on Jake Sutton (42 goals) delivering once again.

Such is the calibre of the Essendon VFL product I can't see the Roosters denying him another day-out especially if Coburg listed big man Daniel Johnston returns.

Predicting what 22 the Roosters will be made available is a 'throw at the stumps' guess, hence my leaning to an improved performance from the Lions, enough at least to walk away with the points.    

Scoop’s tip

Sunbury

Who says Redan can't make it two top four scalps in as many weeks?

It would take an almighty effort for a relatively young group to back up their come-from-behind win over reigning premiers Melton in seven days, stay in the moment and deliver against the might of East Point who find themselves a game clear in second, with enough motivation to fight for a golden opportunity, top two finish.

Sure, the numbers suggest the Kangas are 22 points less potent away from home in 2025, but when you consider they've won their last 14 games at Eastern Oval, it should come as no surprise.

Weather permitting, the ask of the Lions to be in the hunt, in front of home fans at the final siren will be a minimum score of 85 (East Point away avg).

Ironically, returns beyond the asking target have been achieved by the Lions three times this year, two of those occasions against top four opposition, namely Melton (87 in Round 12) and Sunbury on Good Friday (88).

Lions’ fans will have their fingers crossed reigning Henderson Medallist Matthew Johnston is unavailable due to rolling both ankles and copping a cork in last week’s win over Sunbury, joining smooth mover Alex Molan (ankle - season) on the sidelines.

One event that won't be avoided for the Lions will be the return of Kangas inside mid Mickitja Rotumah-Onus, who is due back from a hamstring complaint.

While the Kangas will go in warm favourites given their 10-2 win/loss record this year, the extent of that expectation will rely heavily on the goal returns of Bryson McDougall (31 goals) and impact of star utility Jordy Johnston (20) who has featured in best on 11 out of 12 occasions.

The Lions aren't without a host of capable weapons on their day either.

But, If the last three encounters head-to-head are anything to go by, it's going to be a tough ask for Redan containing the offensive power of East Point.

Not once over the sample size has Redan restricted the Kangas below 105 points, nor posted more than 78 points of their own at an average losing margin of 65 points.

However, footy can be a funny game, and momentum bare no ceiling, but it's the Kangas pure and simple in the lead up as the team to beat.

Scoop’s tip

East Point

While we're barely two thirds through the home and away season, the business end has arrived prematurely for Ballarat when they host Lake Wendouree on Saturday.

After four losses on the trot and a percentage inferior to all bar the Lakers, this match serves as an unofficial elimination final for the Swans despite their seventh placing on the BFNL table.

Coach Ash Baker's message will be simple.

Bring the pressure you did last week against top side Darley and the process will surely take care of the outcome in the form of a big win in front of their proud and loyal fans.

The band, we'll call them Ballarat in this case, are slowly getting back together and look ominous when on the same page despite losses to Darley (25 points), North Ballarat (26), Sebastopol (36) and Melton (20) over the last month.

The Swans are likely to welcome back important utility Paddy Simpson who has not been seen since post the Sunbury game in Round 4.

The loss of marquee recruit Biggie Nyuon (syndesmosis) has done the Swans no favours, they haven't won a game since.

But the return of Ash Butler and Simpson, experience of Andrew Hooper, sheer presence of Tristan Maple (Footscray VFL), growth of Fraser Perkins, confidence of Luke Gray and the consistency of the Rinaldi brothers should provide the ideal platform for the Swans to get about their business.

Getting within 25 points of flag fancies Darley and Melton is really encouraging.

Time to click Swannies, because road trips to Sunbury and East Point await in the next fortnight.

The Lakers will have gained some confidence from their last three-quarter effort last week against Sebastopol when they recovered from a one-point opening term to post their highest score of the season.

Sure, they were beaten by 58 points, but there was merit in the way they finished off showing pride in the jumper, adding respect to the margin in the end.

While that feature in isolation was a positive for the Lakers it wasn't dissimilar to their patterns of 2024.

The Lakers have proven they can match it with most for three quarters, but they continue to let opposition sides blow their candles out far too prematurely.

Scoop’s tip

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