While the Devils will start warm favourites on their home deck, a Wintery forecast for Saturday's qualifying final will give the visiting Kangas’ chances a timely boost as they endeavour to marshal the troops after an injury marred preparation. 

Up to seven of the nine crucial Kangas that missed their encouraging 12-point loss to the Devils on August 16th are expected to play, confirming there is a bit to play out here despite the minor premiers’ 17-game winning streak.

Conditions should suit the contested nature of the Kangas’ game and possibly reduce the maximum 'spread' damage of star Devils’ mid combo in Brett Bewley and Nick Hind.

Kangas mid and clearance beast Mickitja Rotumah-Onus will thrive in the event of a slow deck with an expected spike in stoppage play while the unenviable task for Liam Canny, a projected run with Brett Bewley role, will be tempered to the 'humanly possible'.    

Looking forward to the front half, 'bang for buck' tussle with Will Johnson (59 goals) and Mickey Edwards (28) for the Devils at one end and the three-pronged Kangas attack of Jacob Brown (47), Bryson McDougall (32, 12 games) and newcomer Jarrod Joyce (11, 6) at the other.

Just who benefits from a potential mouth-watering supply of inside 50s will go a long way deciding this game.

Enter the unheralded defenders.

Will Billy Myers go to Brown? The versatile defender kept Brown goalless for two and a half quarters before his move into the ruck in Round 17.

Brown went onto kick 2.4 with six shots on goal as a timely reminder of his capabilities, not mentioning his four goals per game average over the last six weeks, primarily, in the absence of McDougall.

Werribee VFL listed talent and rebound defender Mace Cousins will aid the cause behind the ball for the Devils alongside elite distributors Myers and Matthew Brett.

Kangas’ coach Joe Carmody will need to be agile with his intent containing Johnston and Edwards, I’m not sure they're 100% convinced of the right way to go on exposed form.

What we do know however, is Jackson Merrett looms the key distributor for the Kangas on the back of his 40+ disposal game - more than half uncontested.

The weight Jordan puts on Merrett’s output It will be a point of interest.

On spec, the Kangas have a handful of key players, either first or second up, having missed a month of footy for an assignment against a hardened Devils outfit who have been prepped to the minute and itching to leave the waiting room for their best flag tilt since 2023.

ONES TO WATCH

Defenders

Darley: Billy Myers (#10) - averages 27 disposals, 17 effective kicks (comp rank 1st) and 8.2 marks (2nd). 

East Point: Jackson Merrett (#1) - averages 26 disposals, 20 uncontested possessions and ranks 1st in the comp for rebound 50's (8 per game).

Midfielders

Darley: Brett Bewley (#2) - averages 39 disposals (comp rank 1st) and 7 inside 50s (1st). Missed last week’s three-point win over North Ballarat. Nick Hind (#1) - averages 32 disposals (comp rank 2nd) including 23 kicks (1st) and 6.6 inside 50s (3rd).

East Point: Jordy Johnston (#11) - missed their previous meet in Round 17. Been named the Kangas’ best in seven of last nine games and second best the other two. Averaging 150 ranking points (comp rank 3rd), 28 disposals (13th) including 21 kicks (5th), 8 marks (5th), 8 score involvements (7th), and 6 inside 50s (7th). Mickitja Rotumah-Onus (#2) - ranks 2nd in the comp for contested possessions per game with 17.

Forwards

Darley: Will Johnson (#22) - 59 goals (comp rank 3rd) - averages 6 goal involvements per game (comp rank 2nd).

East Point: Jacob Brown (#4) - 47 goals (comp rank 5th) including 25 goals from his last six games.

FOR THE RECORD

• The last finals meet between these two sides was decided in overtime following a draw in last year’s preliminary final at Marty Busch Reserve. East Point won by seven points.
• Darley (17-1) are unbeaten since Round 1 and have won their last two matches against East Point, as well as six of the last 10 meetings head-to-head.

Scoop’s tip

Darley

Sunbury will ask questions of a young and exuberant Ballarat outfit who pinched the final spot in the six, having come from as low as eighth in the final round of the home and away season.

The test will come early for Ash Baker's Swans on a relatively firm deck expected at Maddingley Park, despite the forecast of rain.

The Swans have been caught napping in first quarters in 2025 with only the Lake Wendouree ranking below them, while the Lions have bettered all bar Darley and East Point with their returns.

Lions pair Jake Sutton (68 goals) and Daniel Johnston (37 goals) will stretch an inexperienced Swans back half, without certain 1v1s will be enough for Baker to settle.

Johnston missed their last meeting when the Lions won narrowly by 9 points at the Clarke Oval and poses the obvious threat for greater separation.

Expect a team defence approach from the Swans, not bound in isolation to the back six or seven but a midfield accountable without the ball to deny freewheeling Sunbury trio Jake Egan, Harry Power and Ben Cameron pressure-free entries.

Recent history says the Swans will get their chance, given the two sides have split their last 10 meets with five wins apiece.

There is plenty to like about the growing band of accumulators and impact at the Swans - Tristan Maple, the Rinaldi brothers, Wyatt Squires and Fraser Perkins will lead the offensive on the ground and Harry Butler and Jack O'Brien in the air.

The core group of ball winners will need a day out on the efficiency front against a very healthy Sunbury outfit, who are peaking at the right time on the back of a 60-point thrashing of reigning premiers Melton.    

While we speculate reservation, wants, needs, if, what’s and maybes, the Swans will not fear Sunbury having won two of their last four meets, including a two-point Elimination Final triumph last year.

When you include two recent wins for the Swans at Maddingley Park (v Bacchus Marsh) from as many visits, the outlook is positive despite the unavoidable underdog tag.

The dangerous Lions have proven to have a match winning quarter in them most weeks.

With a seven-goals-or-more quarter notched under their belts against Darley, East Point and Melton - not to mention a 10 goal third term against the Swans in Round 4, it's hard to deny the best of Matty White's pride is very good.      

Sunbury's depth should prove too much for the bevy even though that theory has proven otherwise on two of the last four occasions.

ONES TO WATCH

Defenders

Ballarat: Tristan Maple (#7) - while a bona fide mid rotation, Maple ranks 4th in the comp for handball receives and 7th for intercept possessions.

Sunbury: Tyson Lever (#4) - averages 27 disposals (comp rank 17th) and is 10th in the comp for effective disposals. BFNL rank 1st for intercept marks and 3rd for marks.

Midfielders

Ballarat: Tristan Maple (#7) - averages 31 disposals (comp rank 6th), effective disposals (3rd), handball receives (4th) and intercept possessions (7th). Lewis Rinaldi (#24) - ranks 1st in the comp for tackles, 4th for overall pressure and 9th for hard ball gets. Wyatt Squires (#12) - 26 disposal average (21st) and Fraser Perkins - 23.5 disposal average.

Sunbury: Jake Egan (#6) - elite in nearly all areas in 2025 - averages 28 disposals, ranks 4th in the comp for contested possessions and ranks 3rd for pressure. Harry Power (#1) - 29 disposal average and ranks 3rd in the comp for handball receives.

Forwards

Ballarat: Andrew Hooper (#4) - 32 goals (comp rank 10th), Harry Butler (#25) - 29 goals (comp rank 14th), Ranks 1st at the Swans for contested marks (comp rank 16th) and goal involvements (comp rank 14th)

Sunbury: Jake Sutton (#14) - 68 goals (comp rank 1st), 17 games all with returns of multiple goals. Kicked 5 goals in both previous meets against the Swans. David Johnston (#21) - 37 goals (comp rank 6th), 15 games including 13 returns of multiple goals. Missed the last meeting with the Swans in Round 14.

FOR THE RECORD

• While Sunbury have won the last two meetings, the record is split 5-5 over the last 10.  
• Ballarat defeated Sunbury in 2024 Elimination Final (4v5) by two points.

Scoop’s tip

Sunbury

Reigning premiers Melton will endeavour to put an underwhelming back half of the home and away season behind them and pivot into the present when they take on Bacchus Marsh in Sunday's Elimination Final at Eastern Oval.

Though the prospect of a Cobras upset is very real.

The vibe at Bacchus Marsh under Dennis Armfield has not been higher since their premiership year of 2016 as they embark on a final’s series with all three teams in the mix.

On the contrary, the Bloods have fallen short on expectation and are in need of a major boost both physically and mentally.

The Bloods’ 60-point loss to Sunbury in Round 18 lays testament to the claim.

Bloods’ mentor Troy Scoble is an impressive individual, shrewd leader and premiership coach.

Not even he could have planned for the horror run of injury and unavailability his club has had to endure but he will need to find a way to flip the narrative - and fast!

While all coaches do their best to manage the ups and downs, it's over to the players on Sunday to mount an emphatic response to the messaging.

While the Bloods have just two wins and a draw from their last seven games, the Cobras are just marginally ahead with three wins and will need to find an edge of their own if they're to overcome the perennial finalists.

However, the Cobras will have taken plenty of confidence from their drought breaking win over the Bloods earlier this month without key pillars Jake Owen and Will Lalor.

Owen's return last week was something to behold with his six goals, but don't underestimate the value of Lalor and what he brings in the form of a matchup with Liam or Ryan Carter, who too missed the Round 14 meet.

Liam (30 goals) in particular, is the barometer, with the proven match-winner playing every game thus far.

It's worth noting, in the Bloods’ seven games they missed out on the premiership points in 2025, Carter has been held to seven goals in total.  

The Bloods have enviable experience, ability and trust in their leaders to negotiate a sixth successive finals campaign off on the right foot.

What stands in their way is an eclectic mix of wisdom and youth starved of finals action, until now.

Can the likes of Cobras’ quartet Luke Goetz, Jake McCreery, Jamie Fulton and Owen lead the collective, and draw the best out of a promising band of next gen finals debutants?

I'm not sure Eastern Oval helps the Cobras cause, it's going to be a slow deck, heavy ball and likely to play into the Bloods hands who are confronted with their season mortality for the first time in a longtime. 

ONES TO WATCH

Defenders

Melton: Jordyn Cotter (#4), Harrison Handley (#5), Lachlan Watkins (#8), Lachlan Phillips (#9) and Adrian Monitto (#4) - highly talented quintet who have been the Bloods’ trademark model in transition. 

Bacchus Marsh: Rye Penny (#8) - has a leap of the gods, if he takes a hanger early look out - it gives the Cobras a boost. Had arguably his best game in his two seasons last week. Must back it up given his importance to the back 6/7 and the potency of the opposition around goal, Will Lalor (#15) - timely return after frustrating run with injury. Key back - will get one of the Carters. Big responsibility on young shoulders but up to the task.

Midfielders

Melton: Jack Walker (#11) - classic accumulator, two-way runner, never stops trying, loves the short hit-up and overlap run in transition. Kyle Borg (#16) – 22 goals, star x-factor qualities, speed to burn, excellent both sides, crucial to Bloods fortunes, will have his moments - just how many?

Bacchus Marsh: Luke Goetz (#33) - league’s premier hit-out ruckman - a spike in hits to advantage will only aid the cause, Jake McCreery (#20) – 29 goals, exciting goalkicking mid, explosive with his tackling pressure, Jamie Fulton (#38) - big bodied mid, thumping left foot, played an integral role in the Cobras’ return to finals.

Forwards

Melton: Braedan Kight (#7) - 57 goals (comp rank 4th) - dynamic small forward who has had another great season with 50+ goals. Matchwinner, guaranteed to be prepared for his next opponent before they even know they have the job! Smart player who earns his rewards. Liam Carter (#18) - 30 goals and Ryan Carter (#23) - 9 goals in 9 games, dangerous premiership forward pairing who cover the ground, support separation, excellent overhead and trusting on goal.

Bacchus Marsh: Jake Owen (#11) - 61 goals from 14 games (comp rank 2nd) - genuine star of the competition - leadership qualities and proven courage – is the Cobras’ most important player. Josh Huxtable (#4) - 25 goals (comp rank 19th), arguably the Cobras cleanest ball user - while a finals debut is the reality, the stage looks perfect for a player with his scope. Was Best on Ground for the BFNL Interleague match versus Hampden League in June.

FOR THE RECORD

• Melton has won nine of their last 10 meetings with Bacchus Marsh.
• The two previous finals meets between these sides were the 1998 and 1999 preliminary finals.

Scoop’s tip

Melton