The high-flying Swans (5-1) will be without boom recruit Alex Keath (concussion) for Saturday’s enthralling match up against the Cobras (4-2) at Alfredton Oval.

While the former AFL intercept defender’s absence looms as a mini win for the visitors in the build-up, the emergence of Riley Constable as a bonafide key back doesn’t mean its ‘alarm bells’ for Ash Baker’s bevy.

In fact, the Swans’ defence has continued to improve up from rank 5th in the comp last year to 3rd after the opening six rounds.

The Cobras ‘busy’ front half led by Jake Owen will ask questions of a Swans’ defence without Keath but I’m confident they can hold sway under pressure as they did against Melton (albeit with Keath) restricting them to nine goals for the afternoon.

The ruck battle looms a cracker with Cobras’ big man Luke Goetz up against 200cm pairing Patrick Graham and Biggie Nyuon.

If the Cobras can deny the Swans tall duo, that will go a long way toward claiming a fourth win against a 2025 finalist already this year.

Biggie does his damage forward, it’s as simple as that, and leads the Tony Lockett Medal race averaging four goals a game.

Just who gets that match up will be a ‘watch this space’ given the lack of genuine height among a Cobras’ defence without Wil Lalor.

The centre clearance battle at the feet of the tall timber will surely play its own role given very little separates the two sides on the numbers front.

If you look at the numbers, they compare nicely.

Bacchus Marsh (62) lead Ballarat (58) for hit outs while averaging two more hitouts to advantage per game (11.8 to 9.7) While the Swans lead clearance 20-17 and centre clearances 11-10.7.

The dogfight 1%s are also evenly matched 45-41 in favour of the Swans.

Baker’s boys are currently ranked one in the comp for pressure and handballs so the challenge for Dennis Armfield’s army will be to bring the heat, denying the Swans a spread on their own terms.

If the Cobras can resemble anything close to their recent win over Sunbury, they’re surely in the mix of joining the Swans on five wins.

The numbers suggest there’ll be very little in it, I guess the one that matters most come 5pm will be the scoreboard. The wash up on the numbers front will be reserved for a later day.

Postcode tip for me.

Scoop’s tip: Ballarat

The Kangas will host the Bloods minus four of their big guns Jackson Merrett (season - broken arm), Jacob Brown (hamstring), Jarrod Joyce (knee) and Joe Dodd (four weeks suspended but currently contested).

As if the assignment wasn’t hard enough, especially when the Bloods are 3-3 and in desperate need of a win.

Kangas’ coach Joe Carmody will embrace the occasion as another opportunity to grow the next gen talent into the cornerstone of the club’s future.

While the win/loss stat is not everything at East Point, spare a thought for Melton coach Troy Scoble who is in the ‘premiership window’ but like so many can’t get their best version of themselves on the park.

Expect some change of luck for the Bloods this week with the return of premiership duo Lachlan Walker (concussion) and Ryan Davis (leg).

While the result for many is weighted heavily in the Bloods favour it’s fair to say both camps are clearly frustrated with the mounting injury toll and would rather take each other on at full strength.

Sidelined talent helps neither team. Even the Kangas who are invested in the ‘opportunity space’ would rather be developing their players alongside experienced campaigners Merrett, Brown and the like.

For Scoble at the Bloods, while their situation resembles more like Groundhog Day for another week, it’s time crack in and be grateful for the ‘what have’s’.

While they’re shy on a few soldiers, those standing have proven more than capable and will get the job done again.

Looking for a day out on the road in front of goal for Bloods forward pair Braedan Kight (6 goals from 5 games) and Liam Carter (11 goals from 6 games).

Scoop’s tip: Melton

All roads lead to Marty Busch Reserve for Saturday’s top of the table clash between the Burra and the Roosters.

The hosts have arguably the healthiest list in the comp and will enter the clash near full strength with only Sam Wilkinson likely to miss.

The Roosters have not been as fortunate with speedster Reggie Palmer (broken arm) their latest casualty, set for a period on the sidelines.

Brock Leonard (ACL), Wilbur Shea (shoulder) and Fletcher Loader (foot) are already done for the season while Simon McCartin (calf) and Isaac Carey (knee) are still three and four weeks away respectively.

Some good news however for the Roosters with the likely return of journeyman, key defender Isaac Lovisson who has played just one game since the 2023 grand final.

Lovisson has been in the US plying his trade as a punter in the American football system and was named best on ground in his return game with the Roosters’ Reserves in Round 6.

On the numbers front, very little separates these two sides. Overall pressure (NB+4), hard ball gets (NB+1) and intercept possessions (NB+3) are just three key areas validating the even nature of the match up.

Despite the Roosters slight edge, five game winning streak, and (current) number one ranked defence, my gut feel is somehow with the Burra.

Their dominance to kick away from Darley early in Round 6 and later respond when challenged is an ideal prep for a similar challenge.

Tony Lockyer’s boys have had a chance to rest up, identify the positives, and take learnings from a season defining win.

The mature heads at Sebastopol just may be enough to worry Clint Proctor’s crew out of it in the clinches.

Proctor would be the first to concede his group are on a journey while it feels like the Burra are playing with an edge, making up for lost time.

While a win for either of these big Improvers will do wonders in the belief space moving to 6-1 on top of the BFNL ladder, it’s not the end of the world for the loser.

Should be a belter, a true test of depth stocks for both camps.

Time to kick back and enjoy the show!

Scoop’s tip: Sebastopol

The Lions get the perfect opportunity at home against the Lakers to work on areas of their game, with an eye toward resembling some of the habits and enjoyment levels that led them to a berth in last year’s grand final.

Sunbury are 2-4 from their opening six games and like many, haven’t had the best run on the injury or availability front.

Coach Matty White is a proud leader of his pride so look for a compliant response on Saturday that equates to a big win on the scoreboard.

Unfortunately for the Lakers they can’t take a trick at the moment both on and off the field. Winless and an injury list to key personnel that would impact any side let alone one who has struggled to just four wins from their last 56 games.

Tireless ruckman Tom Zampatti (ACL) and midfield recruit Will Fordham (awaiting knee scans) are the latest casualties compounding an already difficult season for coach Rohan Brown and his group.

Knowing the character of Brown, expect the Lakers to embrace the road trip and plan on delivering one thing above all else at the weekend - effort.

That at least would appease the frustrations to some degree in the aftermath.

Lions star forward Jake Sutton is likely to return to Sydney while Jake Egan is in line for an Essendon VFL recall.

Key staples Josh Guthrie, Fraser Ampulski, Nathan Doyle and Dean Muir all missed the Lions Round 6 loss to Bacchus Marsh and face fitness tests ahead of their highly anticipated returns.

While a certain inevitability looms around the result, expect both camps to arrive with a number of KPIs they’ll want ticked off within game to validate any further progress.

Four-time premiership player Luther Baker prepares for his 200th game on Saturday when his beloved Devils host Redan at Darley Park.

The reigning premiers will look to assert their authority early having won just one game in May after away losses to Melton and Sebastopol.

But they will be made to earn it.

Redan coach Marc Greig was proud of his fledgling groups effort against ladder leaders North Ballarat at their last outing having pushed to be within eight points at half time.

Unfortunately, the reality is the Lions have struggled to score on relatively good decks since their Round 1 win over the Lakers. In fact, the Lions have just won three of 20 quarters since and are 0-5 for last quarters.

Returns on the goal front since their season opener (10,9,7,9,7) have been modest and Saturdays assignment finding a way through the Devils’ defence looms another tough challenge.

The proud high end of Devils talent will be raring to go, Jordan hopeful they can be ‘in the present’ having put their two recent losses behind them.

For the depth charges, a greater response in the compliance space, that was found wanting against the Burra, would be high on Jordan’s agenda.

For some reason the Lions, regardless of ladder position, have always enjoyed periods of momentum (in games) against the Devils.

However, despite the obvious aerial threats of Lachie and Taj Bond forward of the ball, the Lions inability to keep opposition scores under 100 is compelling 107, 164, 100, 126, 98 last five games.

So, expect the Devils to build on their scoreboard separation the longer this game goes.

What the Lions can hope for is denying the slow starting Devils a game on their own terms.

Darley (excluding Lake Wendouree) has split their first quarter win/losses for the sample size averaging just 16 points for the term. Expect Saturday to be part of the correction from the Jordan camp.

While every team was rapt to have last week off after a high octane start to the season - a spike in the Devils’ hunger levels would not surprise as they look to raise the bar amidst a very challenging title defence for the black and white.

Result aside, you can count on the unofficial ‘Lachie George Cup’ to generate its own point of interest!

Scoop’s tip: Darley