Scoop previews Round Ten
Ballarat (sixth, played nine – won four and lost five) finds themselves in week two of a season-defining block of six when they meet Sebastopol (fifth, played eight – won four and lost four). Why Ballarat?
Well, between round nine and fourteen the Swans draw reads like this – round nine - Melton (away) loss, round 10 - Sebastopol (away), round 11 - bye (no points), round 12 - Melton South (away), round 13 - BYE (no points) and round 14 - East Point (away) - essentially four away games, split with two non-rewarding byes. The Swans hierarchy would be reasonably pleased with their effort in Melton last week, but honourable losses in an even season are not enough, according to coach Joe Carmody.
And this Saturday looms as good as chance as any for the Swans to steal the points as doubts creep into the 'Burras camp about their standing amid a logjam of teams fighting for a finals spot. Unfortunately for Michael Searl's Sebastopol, injuries have not been kind to them, and expect (ahead of selection) a handful will miss again. While there was ample coverage on who missed for the Cobras last week in their win over the 'Burra, it must be said the 'Burras were Tony Lockyer, Luke Kiel, Michael Powell, Chase Dummett, Jack Bambury, James Richards, Jack McNab, and Jai Harvey shy of fielding arguably their best 22.
While injury plays a role every year and varies the fortunes and expectations of many teams in the process, it is often the group that can park their misgivings with belief intact, that gets the job done.
Saturday's result will be a true reflection of that.
Melton (second, played eight – won six and lost two) take on the potentially under-rated Lake Wendouree (eighth, played eight – won four and lost four) in what looms as another grinding day at the office for both teams.
While the Bloods may have the edge on the Lakers on the 'star front', there is no disputing the evenness of the visitor’s line-up, they are more than capable of causing an upset on any given day. Take round three for example, far from overwhelmed, the underdog Lakers took it to North Ballarat City to inflict their one and only loss of 2021. Furthermore, the Lakers team includes four Greater Western Victoria Rebels (GWV Rebels) who were available to complete the mission. Ironically, the GWV Rebels have this weekend off, whether they will be selected looms as another turn in an intriguing game from the outside.
The Lakers defence led by Brendan Helyar and Josh Bibby will have huge roles come gameday, containing the Carter brothers (Ryan and Liam). Also, just who the Lakers send to pocket dynamos Braeden Kight and Kevin Klixx is another unenviable task for coach Dale Power and his men to overcome. If there is to be an upset on Saturday, expect a defensive grind from the Lakers. They will have denied the Bloods forwards if they are to finish ahead of the ledger. Power will take a spread of goalkickers, whatever it takes to get the unlikely job done.
While there's been plenty to like about the competitive revival of Melton South (10th, played eight – won three and lost five) in 2021, the prospect of East Point (fourth, played eight – won four and lost four) today is a worry. Despite winning three games and finishing just one point shy of fourth, the Panthers have problems conceding too many goals in quick time. To put in perspective, Melton South has averaged 98-points against per game, three more than the winless Darley. And 'it's really three of their last four games that highlights my concern. The Darley game aside (round seven), each of Lake Wendouree (round six - 16.16), Ballarat (round eight - 19.13), and North Ballarat City (round nine - 20.12) recorded heavy 'shot on goal' numbers - 32 each if you do not mind (competition average 21-shots on goal per game). Of the 55-goals conceded, 35 have come in the second half! A leaky back half, that often begins with an ailing midfield won't cut it today against reigning dual Premiers East Point ranks #2 for offence, with only ladder leaders North Ballarat City ahead of them.
We have seen the Panthers take it up to most sides, especially in the first half, and getting the Kangas who look to be building to something resembling more like their best 22 will be a huge test. Little wins leading in for Melton South today, namely the availability of key stars (both sides) for one and a BFNL (0-8) run off the bye for the visiting Kangas to deal with, does give them a glimmer of hope.
Unpredictable Redan (seventh, played eight – won four and lost four) must beat Darley (11th, played eight, won zero and lost eight) today with some degree of conviction if they are to stake their claim for a finals berth in 2021. The Lions sit just outside 'six' on percentage at the moment, but the 14% disparity reads as good as another game. Win, and win well, has to be Jarrett Giampaolo's mission today, anything less is a failure. Why? Well, outside a repeat meeting with the Devils at Darley Park (round 12), Redan are also 'away' to East Point (round 11) and North Ballarat City (round 14) raising questions around likely Premiership points and percentage. The Lions, of course, get nothing from their bye in round 13. So 'the dig in' journey for Redan begins today - even Darley has shown they can match it with teams in patches having been within nine-points of their opponents at half-time on four occasions (Melton, Ballarat, Sebastopol, and Lakers).
The Devils will use today as another opportunity to secure their first win of the season and potentially upset the Lions in the process. Also, getting more games into the younger brigade has been the order of the season for the winless Darley as they inevitably draw one week closer to getting it right. Containing Lions midfield heavyweights Lachie George and Daniel Bond and the work rate and influence of Cooper Craig-Peters will go a long way towards denying their forwards an opportunity to hit the scoreboard. However, it is easier said than done.
Expect a low-scoring affair today as the winter chill sets in when Sunbury (ninth, played eight – won three and lost five) meets Bacchus Marsh (third, played eight – won five and lost three).
These two sides rank in the bottom three for points scored, while defensively both rate in the top-five with a slight leaning to Bacchus Marsh. The Cobras will welcome back a few today who missed last week’s six-point win over Sebastopol including key forward targets Jake and Jayden Owen. Tipping Sunbury's line-up on a whim ahead of selection is near impossible in what shapes as a mini final for them. It has been a frustrating year to date for the Lions, unable to field its best side on paper due to availability, injury, and covid (travel) restrictions. What would surprise many in such an even competition is that Sunbury has not featured in the 'six' since round two. The next five weeks will define their season, albeit their finals chances anyway, with four home games and a bye to negotiate.
After two close wins at home, the Cobras cannot afford to rest on their laurels either with no guarantees of securing any premiership points in their next five weeks with Sunbury (away), Melton (home), North Ballarat City (home), the bye and Lakers (away). I am not sure these two sides have looked that far ahead and fair enough, because it really is all about today, especially for Sunbury they remain a game and a considerable percentage (20%) shy of sixth. The Cobras have been terrific inside the contest for the most part of 2021, it's whether the Lions can match them first, and reap rewards on the spread.
Spoiler alert! Sunbury has averaged just 54-points per game since round one, which is a worry.
North Ballarat - Bye
