Round 11 Preview

Consider Saturday's meeting between Sunbury (eighth, played nine - won four and lost five) and Lake Wendouree (ninth, played nine - won four and lost five) and as the first of many unofficial Elimination Finals, as the BFNL's abbreviated home and away season returns ahead of it's intended conclusion on August 21 (round 14). Both sides will have a clear understanding of the impact this result will have on their respective seasons. The winner is likely to be percentage 'alone', shy of fourth, and still in the hunt - while the loser can wave goodbye to any finals aspirations.

Since the initial return from COVID in round 7, June 19, the Lakers have been on the road for all bar their round nine win over Darley. And their returns since (one win - three losses at 77%), resemble those of a side missing home. While Saturday marks the fourth 'away' game for the Lakers from their last five outings it is also the Lakers third highway trip in four rounds, adding further degrees of difficulty to the weekends' assignment. Since 2018, the Lakers have won just 2/10 games involving highway travel. Sunbury, on the other hand, has looked better since round seven with two wins from their last three games at 100% (for/against).

For the season whole, however, very little separates the two on the numbers. The Lakers rank #9 in attack, averaging 65-points per game, Sunbury 10th at 61-points per game. Both are in the bottom three for goalkicking accuracy, while an improving Sunbury's defence rank #4 (concede 68-points per game average) ahead of the Lakers ninth (78-points per game average).

Travis Hodgson's Lions will be looking to put this game to bed sooner rather than later, denying a desperate Lakers outfit any sniff of an unlikely finals berth.

The game will be on LIVE RADIO APPLE 98.5FM. 

The worry for the winless Darley (11th, played nine - won zero and lost nine) is how far North Ballarat City (first, played nine - won eight and lost one) has come this round?

The ladder leaders have averaged 100+ points per game over the last five weeks that include matches against the second, third, fourth, and fifth (at the time) sides on the ladder.

Strangely NBC, despite their meteoric rise in 2021, looks very similar to what they did in 2019. There will be very few surprises on the name front for the Devils to combat, rather a tsunami in progress. Up to 11 North Ballarat City players, would have played in their last meeting with Darley at Mars Stadium (round 16, 2019) where the Devils saluted by 21-points, while seven (then) Under 19s have since made the grade. Only Thomas Hotchin, Jonothan O'Brien, Ned Nash, and youngster Sam Artz loom the unfamiliar.

However, Darley will have only eight players of their own from that meeting, further highlighting their struggles of a winless 2021 campaign.

Devils defensive trio Matthew Brett, Shane Page, and Darren Leonard will sleep well tonight regardless of the result as the sharing nature of North Ballarat City's offensive weaponry takes its toll. North Ballarat City Coach, Brendan McCartney's new voice in 2021 has a degree of perfect timing about it given the club's growing depth of young talent. While Darley's young brigade are not as forward in age or development as their more seasoned opponents, another opportunity beckons.

Saturday looms a real 'pride in the jumper' game for the Devils at Darley Park who will be without its faithful entourage cheering them on from the sidelines. While keeping this game intact on the scoreboard will be tough for the home side, Devils coach Dan Roy is more likely to weigh his assessment on EFFORT alone, in the aftermath. NBC have waited 28 days between games given their bye in round 10. Needless to add, the Devils will want to start well!

Normally a 17-goal return from any player would sound alarm bells for any opposition ahead of an imminent meeting but somehow I think it's going to work in Redan's (sixth, played nine - won five and lost four) favour when they head to Eastern Oval on Saturday to meet East Point (third, played nine - won five and lost four).

The Kangas, Williamstown affiliate Joel Ottavi will be counting himself very stiff if he is unafforded a recall to the Seagulls VFL line-up after his 17.4 goal day out against the Panthers in round 10. Ottavi's even goal-kicking spread over the four quarters (five, four, four, and four) was the standout performance of the season, as he eyes a potential VFL return against Coburg on Sunday.

This weekend is a throw at the stumps for Jarrett Giampaolo's Redan. While an unlikely win is a bonus, a loss is not the be-all and end-all. Even in loss, the Lions remain in the finals equation, level with up to five other teams on five wins.

Expect Lachie George to go back into the midfield against East Point and mix it up with one of the competition's best combinations as he aims to ease the pressure (of entries) on their own back six. Isaac Grant (general soreness) is almost certain to return after missing the Lions 17-point win over Darley game in round 10, giving the Lions a mini boost forward as George returns to where he does his best work. 

The Kangas are flying, resembling more like their 2019 squad and better, as the weeks unfold. While they may have to do it without Ottavi, their reinforcements bat deeper than most, if not all rival teams. One surprising statistic these two teams will be aiming to improve on is their record against (current) top-six opposition in 2021. Both sides have just one win from four attempts.

Bacchus Marsh (fifth, played nine - won five and lost four) will be desperate to keep its unbeaten run of four 'home' games intact when they meet flag contenders Melton (second, played nine - won seven and lost two). 

Ladder leaders North Ballarat City are the only other team to match the Cobras record at 'home' in 2021. But it will take the Cobras very best to topple a well-organized, fast-paced, omnipotent Bloods outfit. We saw in round 10, the Cobra's lack of leg speed exposed on the bigger ground at Sunbury, so we will need some correction on that vulnerability. Simply denying the Bloods on the outside has been the focus of most teams in 2021 with mixed success. The Cobras have the inside game to match it with the Bloods, as they have proven already against Sebastopol and East Point.  Whether they can execute again with key outs looms their toughest task. We have seen what this Bloods group can do on Maddingley Park given a game on their terms - it's not a pretty sight if you are a Cobra fan. 

Bloods forwards Braeden Kight, Kevin Klixx, and the Carter brothers will be a handful, just who can get off the leash against the Cobras BFNL (rank #3) defence is the big question. Containing all those big guns will go a long way to seeing them cause an unlikely upset, and avoiding a logjam of up to five teams on five wins in the process. 

Since the BFNL's initial return from COVID in round seven, the results-driven landscape hasn't been ideal for Sebastopol (seventh, played nine - won four and lost five) or Saturday's opponents Melton South (10th, played nine - won three and lost six). Round 11's meeting at Marty Busch will break the shackles for one team, considering both have lost their last two matches and three of their last four.

Since the newly renovated completion of Marty Busch Reserve, the 'Burras have yet to stamp any aura of authority. The Sebastopol at Sebastopol assignment does not intimidate sides as much as they would like, with just one win from three attempts. I'm fully aware injuries to key 'Burras players is not helping their cause but they are not alone here. Panthers coach Heath Pritchard is convinced he's had half a dozen 'walk-ups' missing most weeks for one reason or another. With all respect to Pritchard and his men, I think they just copped North Ballarat and East Point at their peak. Panthers gun midfielder Bradley Olsson (three games) has not played since May 1, round three - he's the man along with the Conway's (not related), Shaun Wyatt, and later Paul Curtis that can test these sides above them, especially in Ballarat. Olsson and Curtis remain the missing pieces between a side in the top six, and one that is not. While East Point downed Melton South comfortably on July 10 (round 10), Kangas sharpshooter Joel Ottavi was the first to concede the Panthers had quite a few 'really' good players. Food for thought anyway.

Mick Searle and his men, injuries or not, MUST find a way to win this weekend as results across the wider competition inadvertently impact the race to finals. The 'Burras close their home and away season with three games at home and sit perilously (at the present) outside the six, time to get cracking!

Also, in fact, Melton South's last win in Ballarat - round three, 2017 vs Sebastopol. The Panthers have lost all 14 trips since.

North Ballarat - Bye