Given the overall evenness of the McDonald's Ballarat FNL this season and the fight for a top-six spot warming up, the focus is on Ballarat to go on with their highway win over Darley last week and put the Lakers to the sword. Swans coach Joe Carmody will want this game put to bed early despite this area of the game being the most concerning having just won three of their opening half 12 quarters for the season. 

While the Swans average 72.7 pts per game (comp rank #6th) an asterisk can be put on their disappointing three-goal return against Melton due to unfortunate circumstances. I did write in the season preview that if Jack Fitzpatrick could steer his young Lakers into finals, they should give him a ten-year contract. The results so far and a tough draw give no reasons to temper expectations.

The O'Connell boys, Jacob Coxall and Timmy Collins have been required to carry the heavy load, a big ask given the depth of rival teams. Ballarat is certainly no exception to the theory. The Swans mids without Marcus Powling are still dangerous at the coal face while their rebounding defenders have been vital in all the club's four wins.  

I know the Lakers prevailed at their last meet here in 2021 but the Swans will find comfort knowing Kai Lohmann (Brisbane AFL), Sam Butler (Hawthorn AFL), Nick Rippon, Ash Simpson, Scott Blake, Josh Bibby and Jacob Lohmann won't be there this time around.

Sure, Melton is undefeated and remains the hunted in 2022, but it shouldn't be difficult for Bloods coach Aaron Tymms to find the necessary motivation to be 'all chips in' ahead of their two-week break.

A 41-point loss at their last meet here in 2021 and the flag steal of 2018 when the Bloods looked on track for their first Premiership since 2005 would still ring true. As many as 15 Bloods' who played in that two-point Grand Final loss to the Kangas will feature tomorrow.

How we'd love a top of the table shoot-out between these two top sides given Melton (113 pts per game) and East Point (101.5 pts per game) boast the most potent combinations forward of centre.

But it's the nature of the Bloods' defence (#1, 52.7pts avg AGST) that has the measure of a leaky Kangas back six (#8, 81.2pts avg AGST) confirming a distinct point of difference between the two. For the Bloods, the memo is clear - contain Kanga’s star forward Jordy Johnston, who has 21 goals from his last five games, and you're on your way despite the commendable support roles in recent weeks from Bryce McDougall and youngster Jack Jeffrey.

The assignment for visiting Kanga’s coach Jack Bridges is not as easy, having to find a way to contain the Carter brothers, Braedan Kight and Luke Heaney. Much will depend on how the Kanga's midfield led by Matty Johnston, Mickitja Rotumah-Onus, Joe Dodd and marquee signing Jackson Merrett, go about winning their own ball and their will to lend assistance down back when required.

Bloods mids Jack Walker, Jacob Hickey, Lachie Watkins and wingman Kyle Borg are the comp leaders for their two way running and will ask questions of a highly talented Kanga's outfit. I'm expecting a typical cold Winter's Day in Melton and far from the shoot out the numbers would suggest, rather a game decided by opportunities taken. Tipping a 12-13 goal score will be enough to claim the Premiership points. 

The Panthers will give themselves an almighty chance of claiming their third win of the season when they face the Lions at Melton Rec Reserve.

Any resemblance of the form that saw them within touch of Darley, East Point, and Sebastopol, let alone their two wins on the road over Sunbury and Bacchus Marsh, should provide enough confidence for Heath Pritchard and his staff to eye off a win. Yet for all of the Panthers' improvement, they're running out of 'home' games. Getting it done this weekend will be their fifth attempt in the opening eight rounds (0-4).

Star Panthers forward Dylan Conway is back while the inclusion of captain Shaun Wyatt from illness will be crucial. The Panthers have a growing bunch of in-form contributors at the moment, which must be pleasing for Pritchard who is yet to assemble arguably his best 22 at all this season. Dylan Jones, Cody Chapman, the Thornton-Gielen boys, and Mitch Fino are just a few of the troops having a significant impact on the Panthers' competitive returns.

Nonetheless, a winning culture is what the Panthers ultimately crave, like any club and will have to overcome Redan who is full of beans and belief after their highway win over Sunbury last weekend. The Lions will take comfort knowing their best form has been on the road this season after three misses on the trot at home - a bit like Melton South really.

Just who gets the points tomorrow is a 50/50 proposition - the winners will be made to work hard. Who can produce the desired work rate and respond most effectively to the anticipated high pressure will tell the story on the scoreboard. Hopefully, both teams can enjoy some better luck at the selection table this week - it will only enhance what is already shaping as a cracking affair.  

This round marks the fifth game for the Cobras against top-six opposition in their opening seven games. Their task will not be made any easier down the highway against a North Ballarat outfit desperate to return to the winners' list after dropping three of their last four games. Touted early doors as potential flag favourites, Brendan McCartney's North boys have endured a tough month but should be the beneficiaries of a round 7 opportunity to reset (bye).

While both sides forward of centre average in the low seventies for average points scored per game, it's North's defence (72.8 pts avg AGST comp rank #4) who have held stronger than the Cobras (84.8 pts avg AGST comp rank #9) throughout 2022. And they will need to again, for the Cobras' strengths lay forward in Jake Owen, Aaron Willetts and Rex Hickman.

While North will need to get the matchups right to contain the dangerous trio, the game as it so often is will be largely attributed to the midfield battle. Can the likes of Daniel Burton, Nick Stuhldreier and Tom German match it with Cam McCullum, Jonathan O'Brien and Simon McCartin - it should be an intriguing battle. Naturally, the inside 50s stat will tell us a lot from the outside of who had the upper hand.

North has proven a lesser threat without Thomas Hotchin (ACL) and miss Elliott Lamb (foot) more than he gets credit for, but they do bat a little deeper than their travelling opposition today and should be winning. The Cobras will have their moments. How effective they are at turning those into scores remains their greatest challenge.    

I'm more than happy to stand corrected on the record stating Sebastopol has not beaten Sunbury for as long as gameday stats go back (2009). To say Sunbury has been the 'Burras bogey team would be an understatement. Tomorrow's match, however, looms another opportunity to put an end to this unenviable term of events.

Despite winning half of their quarters in 2022, the Lions have just one win from their opening six games but will give themselves a chance psyching out a 'Burras outfit aiming to stay in the top three calculations.

For all of Sunbury's disappointment thus far, their numbers for and against are by no means horrible. Their ability to convert another two-quarter win higher than their opponents could easily equate to a win and see them just a game off seventh. But easier said than done.

Sebastopol will be well aware of their dismal record against Sunbury and will be hopeful of stretching their unbeaten run to four games. While the 'Burras Tony Lockyer and James Keeble loom the obvious dangers for the visitors, the Lions' connection within their own group may well be greater. The Lions aren't short on talent, and blokes who can possess the footy too. This suggests the game can go down to the wire.

The 'Burra pose as a blueprint for the Lions, having been similarly unable to get their best 22 on the park, and have been decimated with injury. While Mick Searle's boys lob on the back of a hattrick of wins, it's still a good time for Travis Hodgson's Lions to get them before some of their top-end soldiers return. If Marty Busch Reserve was a take-away shop, Travis Hodgson's order for his players would be simple..."One buy-in please!"  There's one catch, however - this order takes 100 minutes to complete.