BFNL Round 9 Preview
Round 9 Football Preview with 'Scoop'
One match done and four with it all to play for before the conlusion of Round 9. Scoop gives his take on the remaining Round 9 games.
Sebastopol
Vs
Ballarat
SATURDAY JUNE 18TH - 2.15PM @ ALFREDTON OVAL
Last time they met: Sebastopol 67 lost to Ballarat 85
One BFNL coach said five weeks ago upon hearing the mounting list of injuries to key players at Sebastopol... 'beware the wounded animal'. Not a truer statement made given the 'Burra has since recorded four wins on the trot over Lake Wendouree, North Ballarat, Melton South and Sunbury.
Admittedly, three of those four sides sit outside the Top Six but you cannot deny the spirit of Michael Searl and his men against the odds who have earned their current second placing on the BFNL ladder. Not without problems of their own, Ballarat has managed back-to-back wins after illness, injury and unavailability crippled their efforts against Melton and East Point.
However, with the recovery near complete, you can't deny the Swans have had their struggles against Bacchus Marsh and more recently Redan and Lake Wendouree. Swans coach Joe Carmody will be looking for a four-quarter effort in what looms as one of the games of the round. Carmody would be well aware of his clubs’ inability to impact early having had to come from behind in three of their five wins. This is not an ideal pattern for a side considered in the top three calculations.
They clearly miss Marcus Powling in the ruck and will be up against it from the opening bounce against athletic 'Burras big man James Richards. Both sides have an even spread of talent across all lines and if ignored could prove the difference on any day. To list them would mean to go further in detail - the relevant parties know who they are. It's time for Ballarat to honour the hype and get it done. I think the 'Burra have a forgive game up their sleeve - naturally, Searl won't want it to be this one.
East Point
Vs
Darley
SATURDAY JUNE 18TH - 2.15PM @ EASTERN OVAL
Last time they met: East Point 117 def Darley 29
An improving Darley plays its first game in 21 days when it aims to make it three wins in as many attempts up the highway in 2022. But there's one glaring obstacle that stands in their way - the might of East Point. Eastern Oval hasn't been the best of hunting grounds for the Devils having lost their last three games here against the Kangas by 78, 22 and 66 points.
You can throw in a 72 point Preliminary Final loss at City Oval for good measure to reaffirm the Devils' degrees of difficulty (away) against the reigning dual Premiers. But that record will account for very little, as the Black and White army led by new coach Dan Jordan and captain Brett Bewley head on a mission with every intention of causing one of the biggest upsets of the season.
I know little separates the two sides on the ladder after eight rounds but you'd think the more seasoned bodies of the Kangas on their home deck will be enough to hold off the young Devils. Jordy Johnston is the obvious danger forward for the Devils to contain, I'm not sure they have a suitable match up. Alternatively, the Devils' Nick Rodda will stretch the Kangas' defence, but at least they have up to five players that could have a crack if the former Williamstown key forward gets off the hook. The Kangas midfield bats a little deeper than the Devils and are likely to provide the greater number of opportunities inside 50.
With the exception of Devils star midfielder Brett Bewley, Kangas' quintet Thomas Brown (ruck), Matty Johnston, Joe Dodd, Mickitja Rotumah-Onus and Jackson Merrett will start favourites against their direct opponents getting the job done between the arcs.
To date, the Kangas offence (96.9pts FOR avg pg Comp #2) has been far more potent than the Devils (82.9 pts FOR avg pg Comp #3) and the beneficiaries of majority supply, but if the Devils midfield can offer some connection of their own forward, they have to be a slim chance against a leaky Kangas back six (85.3 pts AGST avg pg Comp #9). Big ask!
Lake Wendouree
Vs
Melton South
SATURDAY JUNE 18TH - 2.15PM @ CE BROWN RESERVE
Last time they met: Lake Wendouree 112 def Melton South 45
Panthers coach Heath Pritchard would be sick and tired of being reminded of his clubs' horrible record in Ballarat, but until it's put to bed, it remains an issue. Dating back to 2018, Melton South have lost 13 games in succession in the 'West' by an average of 80 points. There will be no better time in 2022 to end the run.
In fairness to the Panthers, they've shown glimpses in the lead-up with meritorious wins on the road against Sunbury and Bacchus Marsh. A positive mind, free of any inevitable influence of the elements will be the right way to start because the Panthers are by no means shy on talent. They would start off favourites against the Lakers in the 'East'. Dylan Conway, Shaun Wyatt, Dylan Jones, Billy Lloyd, The Thornton Gielen bros, Cody Chapman, and Mitch Fino are just eight reasons why the Panthers can get it done today.
For Jack Fitzpatrick and his Lakers, a replay of the club's round one win over Redan could be all that's needed in the lead-up to spark some winning confidence back amongst the group. Since that 116-point scoreline and 38-point win over the Lions, the Lakers have struggled to average just 47 points per game. If the Ballarat winter doesn't flex its muscles, the Lakers will need more than that to hold off the Panthers who average 70 points per game (Comp rank #8) despite only two wins.
The young Lakers dug their heels in against finals aspirant Ballarat in Round 8 and more of the same will be asked from Fitzpatrick if a second win is to come to fruition. Tough game to judge ahead of time, the gap between these two teams' best and worst indicate that any result wouldn't surprise.
Redan
Vs
North Ballarat
SATURDAY JUNE 18TH - 2.15PM @ CITY OVAL
Last time they met: Redan 75 lost to North Ballarat 93
Despite an 0-3 record at home this season, Redan return to City Oval brimming with confidence following back-to-back 'highway travel' wins over Sunbury and Melton South. In fairness, North Ballarat represent a greater hurdle to overcome but there's no discounting the momentum gained for the Lions over the last fortnight. Only three goals separated these two sides at their corresponding meet last year at City Oval and given the sample size of season '22, the Lions will be giving themselves genuine hope.
North Ballarat coach Brendan McCartney has been the first to acknowledge his boys haven't had an easy time of it all year. Conceding injuries to key players and availability has played a role in limiting the 2021 Minor Premiers. I couldn't agree more with Macca, they look every bit 'gettable' this year minus their top-end influence of VFL affiliates Josh Chatfield (Footscray), Sam Glover (Collingwood), Thomas Hotchin (ACL), Joe Symonds and Elliott Lamb (Lisfranc foot).
However, like most sides, allow them the game on their terms, given they do it better than most, and are very hard to beat. North forwards Jamie Quick and Jack Riding are mobile and dangerous, Simon McCartin and Riley Polkinghorne accumulate through the middle under Cam McCallum, and Ryan Hobbs and Ned Nash do the tidying up in defence. No superstars but need to be denied just the same.
Redan will need Izaac Grant, Lachie George and veteran Liam Hoy to feature offensively to trouble North Ballarat who remains a work in progress. Cooper Atchison and Pat Fitzgibbon will keep the width of North honest on the spread. For many a foregone North Ballarat tip is likely, but something tells me Redan are right in this despite their recent home form.