The equation for the Cobras ahead of their Round 17 meeting with Redan is simple: win and your finals hopes remain alive, all be them slim. Get beat, season over.

Sure, there'll be some dialogue around a premature return of star ruckman Daniel Burton, given the stakes, but if they're fair dinkum, waiting another week to face recent giant killer Sunbury may well be the best option.

The Redan Lions aren't the strongest team this year in the ruck, indicating recent addition Spencer Meagher is more than capable of filling the void for another week. The 19-year-old is combative and will prove a handful for 18-year-old opponent Nick Cushing.

The rucks won't determine the result, which I'm sure of as the focus shifts to more pointed areas. The forwards for starters - can Cobras trio Aaron Willetts (26 goals), Rex Hickman (18 goals)and Joel Freeman (15 goals) have their way against a defence that ranks 8th in the comp? They have to be some chance but rest assured the challenges that will come at the other end loom equally as large.

Lions' sharpshooter Izaac Grant (34 goals) and mid/forward Lachie George (23 goals) are the obvious pair Cobras coach Tom German will need to put time into. There's no Jake Owen (concussion) to save the day. Jack Williams and company down back will be asked questions about their ability to restrict the Lions to an inferior score. Despite the Cobras' 10-point loss to the Devils last week, they did concede 106 points for the game, including 31 scoring shots.

So, a tightened backline for the Cobras and a determined midfield cutting supply will be paramount for their chances. Little motivation should be required for the Cobras, for a season on the line is enough.

For Jarrett Giampaolo and his boys, a fourth win in the east beckons in another throw at the stumps game. While they can't make the six, they can most certainly shape it.  

Expect Melton to bring their A-game when they meet flag contenders East Point at Eastern Oval. Luke Heeney and Blake Souter are likely to return to bolster the Bloods stocks and have them near injury free, and ready to launch in the penultimate round of the Home & Away season. Bloods coach Aaron Tymms conceded last week his boys were below their best off the bye for a second time, leaving the door of hope slightly ajar for the daring and willing. And that's what will be asked of Jake Bridges' Kangas on their home deck for their fate is not yet known given their Round 18 bye.

I've no doubt the Kangas' best is good enough but their inability to contain opposition scores has the wider competition questioning whether it can stand up ahead of another finals campaign. A footy audit awaits Bridges' boys and the response will generate a majority of the focus on rival finals contenders. A loss for East Point could see them finish as low as fifth come 5pm August 20 as teams below fight feverishly for a top three finish.

The onus determining the Kangas' chances lies heavily in the performance of their top-end talent. On the flip side, as has been the case against most - the Bloods are not so dependent. In fact, their best three or four players could have a low day and they're still capable of getting the job done. They rank one for defence (55pts AGST avg per game) and one for offence (103 pts for avg per game) and are certain to test the Kangas. While Bridges' boys rank two in offence (91pts FOR pg) their defence rank 9th (79 pts AGST per game). The numbers, weather permitting suggest the Bloods by six goals.

Speaking of danger games, there's no more obvious one than here. Surely Ballarat's 'come from behind' history can't stand up for another month as a free-running Sunbury lob at Alfredton Oval aiming to throw a cat amongst the pigeons.

Travis Hodgson's Lions should be brimming with confidence after their amazing 15-point win over flag favourites Melton. The Lions' best is clearly good enough and would have the Swans worried especially now they have nothing to play for. I'll repeat the earlier adage - while Sunbury are done in a race for a top six position, they can most certainly play a role in shaping it. The Swans have two tough games to finish off - the Lions and later Sebastopol. It's fair to say they're no good things in either given their pattern of play despite a 10-4 season.

If the Lions have VFL affiliates Mitch Lewis, Josh Guthrie and Jack Sutton available, this game looms as a flip of the coin.

The two sides contrasting fortunes are spelled out in the results. Sunbury has lost seven games by 21 points or less, while the Swans have managed to win as many games trailing at halftime, not to mention six of those by seven points or less. It's ridiculous! But in fairness to Joe Carmody's Swans,  good sides find a way to win and their good players are getting it done. How the Swans in form midfield led by Captain Sammy James and young gun Will Liston cope with the experience and growth of the Lions will tell its own story come the final siren.

Both sides have multiple avenues to goal and while the game is not expected to be high scoring given the nature of results at Alfredton Oval, it may take only one to get off the hook and prove the difference.

A win on the road for Sunbury would deliver them kudos and a fifth win of the season while the Swans aim for an all-important top two/three finish. Despite the two team's separation on the ladder, a win for Sunbury would not surprise unless, in fact, they celebrated last week as if it were their Grand Final.   

North Ballarat have the ideal opportunity to end a three-game losing streak at Mars Stadium when they take on Melton South.

Brendan McCartney's boys need to put this game to bed early and strip the visitors of their will, fresh off the bye. The Panthers have shown they can be competitive in games especially early on, so don't expect North to be rolling out the welcome mat.

Panthers coach Heath Pritchard went on the record voicing his respect for North Ballarat and was actually one of a few to tip them to beat the then-undefeated Bloods back in Round 13. No doubt Pritchard will be hoping North are a little flat on the back of recent losses and leave the door slightly ajar for a sniff of an unlikely upset.

It's difficult to forecast anything that will resemble an upset as McCartney's boys go to work, executing their learnings over the last month. Their season depends on it.

Expect Jack Riding (30 goals), Josh Chatfield (if plays) and Jamie Quick (28 goals) to prove a handful and combine for double-figure goals. Just how the Panthers can impact at the other end minus Dylan Conway (retired) and mount a big enough score is an obvious conundrum facing the visitors. I do believe in miracles, just not for this game. North Ballarat simply have too much more to play for.

A win for Sebastopol could see them shoot as high as second place on the BFNL ladder come 5pm Saturday night. And what an achievement that would be given the wretched run of injury to key players they've had to endure.

Put simply, the Burras' destiny lies in their own hands ahead of the penultimate round of the season. Just bank the points and show enough to acquire some needy percentage before an all-out assault against the Swans at Marty Busch next week to determine (likely) a top three finish. But one step at a time.

Let's not forget the Lakers managed to post their second highest score of the season last week against the might of East Point. With that scoreboard bonus despite the loss, I'm sure Jack Fitzpatrick's boys will have derived a lot of confidence in what's been a long season for the club. Again, there's no pressure on the Lakers to deliver given their season - it is all on Sebastopol.

Given the names among the Burras' list, I am surprised they rank just sixth for offence, boasting a modest 71 points per game. Weather permitting, it would be encouraging for Burras coach Michael Searl to earn the game on their own terms and see them go to work. On occasions this year, their ball movement has looked stifled. I don't know how much that comes down to opposition pressure but I'm tipping their execution of the fundamentals has been in part to blame.

On paper, the Burras are capable of booting a ton on any given day, against any opposition, having been successful against East Point and Melton South (both away). But can they do it home with a double chance on the table in front of their 'dare to dream' faithful? The Burras' defence led by Tony Lockyer is a pillar of strength, only Melton has better numbers. It's the forwards turn without Luke Kiel to get it right - and look out if they do

Lakers forward Callum McKay will be up and about after a five-goal haul last week and will give the Burras something to think about. Joel O'Connell, Scotty Carlin and Jacob Coxall will ensure, whatever happens, the Burras will have been made to earn it whatever the outcome.