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BFNL Finals Week 2 Preview


Finals Week 2 Preview with 'Scoop'

For Melton and Sebastopol, it's one win and they're into the 2022 Carlton Draught Senior Men's Grand Final. One loss to either Ballarat or Darley, and the season is over.



Melton

Vs

Sebastopol

SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 3RD - 2:15PM @ MACPHERSON PARK OVAL

Last time they met (Round 11): Melton 84 - Sebastopol 43

Both teams will know they've played a game of footy come 5pm Saturday - win, lose or draw, that's for sure. Given their healthy rivalry over more recent times, and levels of mutual respect, don't count on either party leaving any stone unturned, as a prized spot in the 2022 BFNL Grand Final is up for grabs.

Michael Searl's Sebastopol has been looking forward to another crack at the flag favourites for some time, a genuine footy audit if you will, and a chance to atone for a disappointing 41-point loss in Round 11. We didn't see the real Sebastopol that day, in fact, the Burras didn't win a single quarter. But when you add James Keeble, Luke Kiel, Bailey Medwell, Chase Dummett, James Richards, Jai Harvey, Jordan Crone and Grady Snowden into the Burras Second Semi-Final line-up (all missed Rd11) you start mounting a case. Furthermore, the Burras have lost just once since that Round 11 defeat. Yep, 6/7 including wins over East Point and North Ballarat (twice) is a solid form line.

But words of advice for the hunters - turn up to play from the get-go or cop the wrath of a feverish Bloods outfit going about their business. Aaron Timms' boys have some serious numbers of their own behind them.  The Bloods are 15-2 for first quarters in 2022 and +175 for third quarter points differential (212-37) over the last five weeks including an intimidating 14-goal haul against East Point. Scary stuff.

I think Tymms is fully aware his Bloods hold the aces and it’s they who need containing with winners on every line. Just who and where to start bringing down the Bloods is a task only two teams in 17 tries have had success. Michael Searl is an intelligent footy person and is likely to spend most of his time matching up Ryan (57 goals) and Liam Carter (36) and X-factor Bloods Captain Braedan Kight (40). They loom the clear and present dangers denying the Burras a passage to that one day in September.

The Burras will sweat on the availability of inspirational leader Tony Lockyer (ankle) who will be given until game-day to get right. Lockyer left the ground early in the second quarter of last week's Elimination Final win over North Ballarat and did not return.

Bloods big man Mark Orr will be put through his paces too this week after missing week one of the finals. There's no doubting a few niggles exist for both sides this far into a first full season since 2019.

While I won't be tipping against the Bloods on their home deck, I am wary the Burras' best is good enough to give it a shake.

A Grand Final berth awaits the winner while a spot in next week's Preliminary Final against the winner of Ballarat and Darley.       

Head-to-head in 2022: Melton 1 - Sebastopol 0

Melton                                                                               

Finished: 1st (14 wins, 2 losses)

Record against remaining teams: W4 L0             

Offence team rating (top 4): 1st (106.6 avg)

Defence team rating (top 4): 1st (55.6 avg)

Leading goalkicker: Ryan Carter (57)

Best in first final (Week 1): Jack Walker

 

Sebastopol

Finished: 3rd (10 wins, 6 losses)

Record against remaining teams: W0 L4

Offence team rating (top 4): 3rd (72.4 avg)

Defence team rating (top 4): 2nd (63.1 avg)

Leading goalkicker: James Keeble (31)

Best in first final (Week 1): Lachlan Cassidy


Ballarat

Vs

Darley

SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 4TH - 2:15PM @ CITY OVAL

Last time they met (Round 7): Darley 73 - Ballarat 91

Before we explore the 'nitty gritty" of this highly anticipated, season-on-the-line Semi-Final, it's fair we congratulate Joe Carmody and Dan Jordan for guiding their respective sides back to the business end.

I'm not sure how much can be derived from their first and only meeting at Darley Park back in Round 7 but it was the Swans who had the measure of the Devils. The final margin was as close as the Devils got late in the game, enough to warrant the Swans as the clear favourites despite their already superior, win/loss season. The Swans led from go-to-woe that day, by 19,17 and 30 at the breaks before 18 at the final siren. The Devils (9.19) did have seven more scoring shots than the Swans (14.7) but Carmody's men were far more convincing with their ball movement and ability to hit the scoreboard. Anyway, enough of May 28th... that was 99 days ago.

The Swans have won eight of ten games since, the Devils 7/10 including their last four on the trot.

Darley will have their fingers crossed on the availability of star Captain Brett Bewley (calf) who missed last week's Elimination Final win over East Point. For the Swans Josh Gibson (hamstring), Angus Bade and Rhys Perry are their only injury concerns. Both sides will look remarkably different from their earlier meeting with up to seven new faces (each) likely to feature. The Swans add big guns Marcus Powling and Bailey Van de Heuvel while Jake Dunne, Inji Fyffe, Austin McPherson, Grant Baldwin and Jesse Nicholls make up the extra five. Darley's seven include Dylan Landt, Trent Angwin, Matthew Brett, Darren Leonard, Zane Lehuray, Blake Colley and Ayden Tanner.  Handy inclusions for both teams. But the gain for the Devils has been the return of seasoned defenders Brett and Leonard who have helped sure up the once very young back six. The two were instrumental in restricting noted high-scorers East Point (comp rank #2) to 47 and 57 at their last two encounters.

If Bewley doesn't play, the Devils' midfield will be up against it, taking on an in-form Swans combination. Marcus Powling, Will Liston, Sam James and Lachie Dawson have been super of late featuring as the better players every week. Van de Heuvel has become the X-factor for the Swans with his versatility. Can play at either end, has a big frame, is strong overhead and has an excellent left foot kick. Regardless of the result, the Footscray VFL affiliate will have an influence. The same can be said for dangerous forwards Nick Rodda and Andrew Hooper, both integral trump cards that can win a game off their own boot. The Swans Jake Dunne, along with Gibson provide an extra target forward and will likely stretch the Devils' defence.

Let's hope the game is bereft of could've, would've, should've status in the aftermath given what we know to be certain. One of Ballarat or Darley is heading into a Preliminary Final  - a monumental achievement.

Head-to-Head in 2022 - Ballarat 1 - Darley 0

 

Ballarat                                                                         

Finished 2nd (12 wins, 4 losses)

Record against remaining teams: W3 L2

Offence team rating (top 4); 4th (71.9 avg)

Defence team rating (top 4); 3rd (68.9 avg)

Leading goalkicker: Andrew Hooper (38)

Best in first final (Week 1): Will Liston

 

Darley

Finished: 4th (10 wins, 6 losses)

Record against remaining teams: W1 L2

Offence team rating (top 4): 2nd (81.6 avg)

Defence team rating (top 4): 4th (73.6 avg)

Leading goalkicker: Nick Rodda (57)

Best in first final (Week 1): Bailey Young