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BFNL Weekend Preview - Week 1 Finals, 2024


The first week of finals presents us with three blockbuster games all with their own intriguing storylines this coming weekend.


Melton

vs

East Point

QUALIFYING FINAL - SATURDAY AUGUST 31ST - 2.15PM @ DARLEY PARK

- BFNL MATCH OF THE ROUND LIVE VISION WITH FULL COMMENTARY 2PM VIA BFNL MATCH CENTRE -

Last time they met - Melton 78 def. by East Point 83 (MacPherson Park, Round 6 2024)

We've waited 105 days for this rematch, and it comes in the form of a mouthwatering qualifying final - can't wait!

Round 6 is a far cry from the hustle, bustle and pressure of a final but in fairness, May 18th went pretty close!

What an outstanding home and away season for these two, losing just three games between them.

The Kangas could find themselves a little stiff not to finish top with just the two losses but that is the current landscape when the Bloods are involved.

Despite finishing second, the Kangas have plenty of upside heading into this bout having beaten the Bloods the last two times including a semi final win last year.

While both of those wins came away from Eastern Oval, Darley Park looms as an undeniable variable for mine to overcome.

East Point have not won at Darley Park for 10 years, that worries me.

If this game were in Ballarat, I would be tipping the Kangas but something tells me the ground and conditions will suit Troy Scoble's planning - he knows the ground so well.

Call it due diligence ahead of time but I guarantee you - observations duly noted.

Even Joe Carmody, a longtime player in the BFNL could barely recall any success at the venue!

But if there was ever a group to break the run of outs for the Kangas at Darley Park, it's this one against the Bloods.

Melton are gettable - the Kangas’ best is arguably better. But can they produce in the white shorts against the season benchmark.

The Bloods, it seems, have been waiting for this day for a while now and I’m not talking weeks, rather 11 months for another crack at a flag that has previously gone awry.

At least Scoble conceded they weren't the best team in it last year, but something tells me that opinion has changed.

The buy-in from the Bloods group is palpable. While they gave every indication last week, they're gettable, so did East Point! Kudos to Ballarat.

Holistically, every bit of blood, sweat and tears shed to this point equate to an unmissable qualifying final, spruik as one for the ages.

As part of the editorial, I’m required to make a choice. I'm leaning to the Bloods but would not be surprised if the Kangas produced the goods following a timely reminder of their mortality last week.

PLAYER WATCH

Defenders
Melton: Adrian Monitto (#45), Riley Walker (#29) and Lachie Phillips (#9) are the genesis in transition for the Bloods. Monitto and Walker especially provide the spread, run, carry and distribution in the absence of Jordy Cotter (#4) and will stretch the ground, making it uncomfortable for the Kangas.

East Point: Jackson Merrett (#1) and Jacob Brown (#4) are the experience and cornerstone of the Kangas’ defence. Merrett ranks fourth for in the comp uncontested marks, fifth for marks and sixth for effective kicks and tenth for kicks. Merrett is the go-to distributor. Brown, not dissimilar to Merrett ranks third in the comp for effective kicks, fourteenth for kicks, fourth for marks AND intercept marks. What is also worthy of note is Brown ranks twenty-second in the comp for handball receives.  

Midfielders
Melton: Jaycob Hickey (#10) averages 27.6 disposals, ranks 9 in the comp for clearances and 11th for goal involvements while (#11) Jack Walker averages 26.6 disposals, ranks 8 for goal assists and 13th for centre clearances.

East Point: Matty Johnston (#7) ranks third in the comp for disposals (34.1) and contested possessions. Johnston also features in the top 10 for a host of other KPIs and ranks elite in all areas when the Kangas have possession of the ball. Mikitja Rottumah-Onus (#2) ranks among the top 25 in the comp for clearances, contested possessions, handballs, hard ball gets, ground ball gets, goal assists and involvements. 

Forwards
Melton: Braedan Kight (#7) is the league’s leading goalkicker with 75. Ryan Carter (#23) is fifth on the goalkicking table with 41.

East Point: Bryson McDougall (#12) is second in the league for goals with 67. McDougall has taken more marks inside 50 than other player in the BFNL and ranks second for total contested marks. Strahan Robinson (#30) has 31 goals, ranks elite for contested marks and marks inside 50 (10th).

SCOOP’S TIP
Melton


Ballarat

vs

Sunbury

ELIMINATION FINAL 1 - SATURDAY AUGUST 31ST - 2.15PM @ MARTY BUSCH RECREATION RESERVE

Last time they met - Ballarat 71 def. Sunbury 49 (Alfredton Oval, Round 11 2024)

Haven't the Swans raised a few eyebrows in the back half of the season, unbeaten since round 10 including a win over Sunbury!

A fourth placed finish for the Swans would have surprised even the most loyal of supporter with Melton, East Point and Darley the only teams finishing above them.

For the record Ballarat has played 7 games this year against top six opposition for two wins and a draw, averaging 54 points FOR and 90 points AGAINST with a poor percentage of 60.

Those numbers amount to very little in the here and now following a breakout win over East Point.

Let's just hope the emotional toll of last week’s feat doesn't drain the life out of this young group who find themselves without no ceiling on the 'possible'.

The competition did look up and take notice, you can take that to the bank.

In fact, none more so than Lions’ coach Matty White who said on ‘The Presser’ a month ago he was “happy not to be playing the Swans again,”.

Footy can be an unpredictable vehicle for planning.

Here we are week one of the finals and Sunbury find themselves up the highway for a rendezvous eliminator against the plucky Swans.

Sunbury have lost their last six games against top six opposition and will be challenged again in Ballarat albeit at Sebastopol.

Injuries I’m sure have derailed Matty White's season that started so promisingly.

The loss of key backs in the latter stages and the recent hamstring injury to midfielder Jake Egan hasn't made the assignment any easier.

For Ballarat aren't the same side they were 10 weeks ago.

Chris Maple's group are a bona fide threat to any oppo.

The group are healthy, in form and bat deep.

Tristan Maple, Lachie Dalgleish, Harry Butler, Will Liston, the Rinaldi brothers and Rhys Perry have all gone to another level impacting BFNL games while the staple core of Angus Bade, Marcus Powling and Andrew Hooper present their own set of challenges.

Apologies to the more than capable remainder.

While Sunbury are in with a real chance to progress, momentum for me is with the Swans. 

PLAYER WATCH

Defenders
Ballarat: Rhys Perry (#53) has proven to be solid key defender who ranks elite for intercept marks, contested marks, spoils and 1%ers while the experienced rebound and distribution of Lachie Dalgleish (#14) will be crucial for the Swans. Dalgleish averages 18 kicks from his 22 disposals @74% efficiency. Also ranks elite for marks, intercept marks and possessions, rebound 50s and spoils.

Sunbury: Tyson Lever (#4) ranks second in the comp for Intercept marks (4.9), third for marks (9.1), fourth for intercept possessions (10.3), fifth for spoils (4.1) and tenth for rebound 50s (5.5). 

Midfielders
Ballarat: Will Liston (#2) is a two-time club best and fairest winner who ranks elite for disposals (23.2), contested possessions (10.8), clearances (7.1) and Tackles (6.9 - comp rank #10). Tristan Maple (#7) shares his time between half back/mid and knows how to find the footy averaging 29.2 disposals @76% (comp rank #9) A predominant 'kick' (20/29) sees him an integral part of the Swans’ work between the arcs. Maple is also among the elite rankings for intercept possessions, intercept marks and rebound 50s. The Footscray VFL listed product ranks third in the comp for handball receives and fifth for effective kicks.

Sunbury: Josh Guthrie (#5) ranks elite in all categories with the ball - disposals 33.1 @76% efficiency (comp rank #3), clearances (7.4), Inside 50s (4), Marks (5.9), Goal and score involvements (4.4, 7.3). Guthrie ranks 1 in the comp for handballs (17.4) and 6 for ground ball gets 11.2.

Forwards
Ballarat: Andrew Hooper (#4) is the dangerous small forward with 23 goals from 14 games. Harry Butler (#25) has played 7 games this year for the Swans including six wins and a draw. The athletic key forward ranks elite for goal involvements (5.1) and score involvements (7.9) as well as contested marks and ranks 14th for goals (2.3)

Sunbury: Lead up forward Jake Sutton (#14) has kicked 64 goals (comp rank #3) while pressure forward Mitch McLean (#15) finished in 7th with a breakout 40 goal season. The tale of these two speaks for itself - both make up 46.4% of all Sunbury goals.

SCOOP’S TIP
Ballarat


Darley

vs

North Ballarat

ELIMINATION FINAL 2 - SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 1ST - 2.15PM @ DARLEY PARK

Last time they met - Darley 67 def. North Ballarat 55 (Darley Park, Round 12 2024)

Darley will start warm favourites on their home deck when they face North Ballarat on Sunday.

Managed trio Matthew Brett, Luther Baker and Matt Denham will return for the Devils who are beginning to resemble something like their best 22 at the right time of the season.

The journey hasn't been smooth sailing for the Roosters either, with a host of key players absent for some, if not all, second half of the season.

While the latest setback, a hamstring injury to Simon McCartin in Round 17 will sideline him for another week, the Roosters’ chances look set for a boost if Riley Polkinghorne (ankle -Round 10) and Ryan Hobbs (hamstring – Round 14) are made available.     

The Roosters’ defence will struggle to match the Devils’ height and aerial presence forward as Brady Wright, Billy Myers and Will Johnson look to capitalise.

Only Noah Cockerill and Liam Deering from the Roosters’ last hit-out in Round 17 resemble any suitable, go-to option.

The fitness of Ryan Hobbs will be crucial to their chances - surely, he's ready to go but will be in need of the run.

The midfield battle is always highly competitive.

The Devils’ combo of Brett Bewley, Luther Baker and Matty Denham is as good as any in the BFNL and will ask questions of a less experienced midfield who know how to find the footy.

Just what advantage the Roosters’ mids can get at the feet of big man Cam McCallum will tell its own story in the aftermath.

Expectations on Polkinghorne in the event of a return will be measured.

The Devils’ defence will need to be on their mettle holding out Roosters’ trio Joel Freeman, Ned Nash and Hugh Trigg.

What is brought to ground will surely open the door for a few speedy Roosters to pounce, removing much of the reliance on Freeman, who is responsible for 45% of North Ballarat's goals in their last four games (18/40).   

While windy, difficult conditions are forecast you can be guaranteed this game will be fought tooth and nail on the inside with very little on offer for the feint hearted.

I expect the Devils to progress with too much firepower for the Roosters who remain essentially in the 'undermanned' space. 

PLAYER WATCH

Defenders
Darley: Matthew Brett (#11) rated elite for disposals (22.4) and intercept possessions (10.5)

North Ballarat: Noah Cockerill (#31) is a disciplined key tall who ranks elite for 1%ers and above average for intercepts (4.6)

Midfielders
Darley: Brett Bewley (#2) Ranks 1 in the comp for disposals (39.9) and clearances (10.4). Luther Baker (#7) is considered elite for disposals (25.3), ranks seventh in the comp for clearances (7.5) and ground ball gets (11.1). 

North Ballarat: Josh Sparkman (#1) is new to the midfield role after VFL experience - elite for disposals (28.5) and 5th in the comp for handball receives and 7th for intercept possessions (8.9) while Riley Polkinghorne (#27) Ranks 3rd in comp for I50s (6.9), 11th in comp for disposals (29.6) and 3rd for ball up clearances (4.4)

Forwards
Darley: Brady Wright (#15) ranks 8th in the comp for contested marks (2.8) and 14th for Marks I50 (2.6) while the medium sized Will Johnson (#22) can play tall with the forward converting 23 goals in 11 games.

North Ballarat: Joel Freeman (#30) has kicked 18 goals in his last 4 games with three bags of five and a finish of three while Ned Nash (#3) has converted 26 goals in a smaller role.

SCOOP’S TIP
Darley