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BFNL Round 12 Preview


Round 12 Football Preview with 'Scoop'

There are a few top-of-the-table clashes in Round 12 of the McDonald's Ballarat FNL Senior Men's competition, but perhaps the bottom of the ladder clash will turn out to be the game of the week.



Melton

Vs

Bacchus Marsh

SATURDAY JULY 9th - 2.15PM @ MACPHERSON PARK OVAL

Last time they met (Round 3): Melton 83 def Bacchus Marsh 55

It would take a brave judge to tip against the undefeated Bloods who are expected to continue their winning ways when they meet the Cobras at 'Maccy Park'.

While the Bloods will be without gun midfielder Jack Walker (broken jaw), the Cobras will be hopeful of Daniel Burton (foot) and Harry King to return and give them every chance to pinch the upset of the year. But it's highly unlikely. The spread of Melton's depth has defined their superior separation on the BFNL ladder. So far this season, only one team has had a closer final margin to the Bloods, with Redan finishing within 10-points at City Oval in Round 10. Containing the Bloods' potency will be a huge ask for the Cobras' back six led by their newfound key defender and captain Jake Owen.

The Bloods leading five goalkickers Ryan Carter (35), Braedan Kight (23), Liam Carter (19), Luke Heeney (16), and Lachlan Hickey (13), have combined for more goals than the entire makeup of the Cobras team in 2022 (106 vs 104). It's a daunting assignment for Cobras coach Tom German, but he will appreciate the challenge it presents - an opportunity to see how you stack up against the competition's best.

Cobras’ newcomers Jason Robinson, Jack Williams, Michael Culliver, Sam Crea, Rex Hickman and Max Eastmure have bolstered the line-up joining the usual suspects to warrant an outside chance. But numbers suggest weather permitting, the Bloods will do it comfortably. The Cobras have proven they can travel this year with three wins on the road, but the ladder leaders loom a different task altogether.


Ballarat

Vs

East Point

SATURDAY JULY 9th - 2.15PM @ AFREDTON RECREATION RESERVE

Last time they met (Round 6): East Point 112 def Ballarat 80

Ballarat will not want to give East Point a good start when second on the ladder meets third at Alfredton Oval. The amount of firepower the Kangas have up forward was explored in the Round 11 review. Five times they've reached the ton and fell just one point short (99) in Round 9 which would have had them equal with Melton’s wins over 100-points.

The Swans' inability to start well despite their 7-3 winning record is a concern. In fact, Joe Carmody's boys have trailed seven times at the halftime siren! Somehow, they lost three quarters last week and were still able to get the job done by the barest of margins. Furthermore, the Swans rank ninth for quarters won (16.5/40) despite their third placing on the table with only Melton South (13.5/40) and Lake Wendouree (10/40) below them.

I'm aware the Swans were underdone at their last meet - that's a given - but there's no denying a footy audit awaits. The Swans have not played a team currently in the top six since Darley in Round Seven, and their form is questionable despite their winning streak. Ballarat has won twice by one point and struggled against the bottom side Lakers (13-point margin). They're an interesting prospect against the Kangas, who are warming back to their best football.

While there is a clear advantage on paper to East Point in the forward half (averaging 97.3 points per game for a competition rank of #2) over Ballarat (averaging 70.4 points per game for a competition rank of #8), it's the Swans' defence (#3 in the comp) who have the edge against the Kangas (#8 in the comp).

The Swans will be a much better side when gun ruckman Marcus Powling (hamstring) returns, and for as long as Bailey Van De Heuvel is on VFL duties the Swans appear a little short in their ruck stocks.

Two weapons Carmody's group have in their armory are options for Jordy Johnston and a decent midfield. But they won't start favourites in either challenge from the opening bounce. 


Darley

Vs

Melton South

SATURDAY JULY 9th - 2.15PM @ DARLEY PARK

Last time they met (Round 3): Darley 98 def Melton South 65

While it's fair Darley goes in as favourites there can be no denying this match looms as a danger game. Both sides have had ongoing injury issues and rarely, if at all, field their best 22. Panthers’ star forward Dylan Conway has had a quiet year by his standards on the goal front, scoring 15 goals from his 8 games. At the opposing end, Devils spearhead Nick Rodda has featured in all ten games for his league-leading 40-goal haul.

The scary prospect for the Devils is that Conway is due. The former Port Melbourne forward will have fond memories of his last visit to Darley Park where he delivered a match-winning nine-goal performance. The Devils without Matty Brett don't have an obvious match-up, so again Dan Jordan will be asking for a shared effort from his young back six. Rodda too, if given a suitable supply, will back himself in hitting the scoreboard having kicked eight goals at their previous meet in Round 3.

Brett Bewley and Luther Baker will lead the Devils’ midfield. On form, the Devils look one short through the middle without Essendon VFL affiliate Dylan Landt. His availability will be subject to VFL commitments. The stark reality for the Devils despite being ranked third in the competition forward of centre is another avenue to goal outside of Rodda. Wingman Andy Azzopardi is their number two goal scorer in '22 with 11 goals.

For the Panthers, Shaun Wyatt, Mitch Fino and Cody Chapman have been the beneficiaries at ground level due to the ruck dominance of Dylan Jones, whose influence will be significant in validating the result. Whether Jake Thornton-Gielen (shoulder) has recovered will have its own impact. He is another player with a good individual history against the Devils.

Whether they can build on a 6-4 record for teams coming off the bye remains an unknown, but one thing is certain, Heath Pritchard's boys will bring the heat early. Good starts have featured in each of their three wins this season, all of which were won on the road. On the flip side, this is a must-win game for the Devils if they have genuine finals aspirations.


Lake Wendouree

Vs

Sunbury

SATURDAY JULY 9th - 2.15PM @ CE BROWN RESERVE

Last time they met (Round 6): Sunbury 100 def Lake Wendouree 59

With just two wins between them this season, these two bottom sides will be giving themselves every chance at singing their club song come 5pm. While both have 1-9 win-loss records, Sunbury has shown more than the Lakers over recent weeks and will go in as favourites. The Lions led both East Point and Ballarat for lengthy periods but couldn't finish off their work. Maybe on this trip up the road, they can relinquish the disappointment with a convincing win - or a win of any nature. The Lakers have shown they can bring the heat in patches, but their ball use/execution has been their worst enemy in recent times.

Jack Fitzpatrick's Lakers will be happy returning home after back-to-back road trips and will be desperate to give fans a reason to smile. Clearly, missing personnel and a bunch of young talent learning what senior footy is all about is making it a tough season for the Lakers, but what Fitzpatrick can ask for is effort and intensity. He will be looking for efforts similar to what they brought last week in their 30-point loss to Bacchus Marsh. Callum McKay, Jake Coxall, Harold Pritchard and Bailey Thompson will share the load as they endeavour to post a winning score.

For Sunbury, the five-goal return of youngster Jake Egan in last week's one-point loss to Ballarat will give him the necessary boost that he belongs at this level.

There was also several other youthful Lions talent starting to impact games. These efforts pose a shining light in an otherwise disappointing year for Travis Hodgson's men. On paper, finding a winner looks like a comfortable study, however, you just don't know which Sunbury you're going to get. The Lions did post their only score of 100 points or more for the season the last time these two sides met in Round 6. Look for the Lions youngsters to get the job done.


Redan

Vs

Sebastopol

SATURDAY JULY 9th - 2.15PM @ CITY OVAL BALLARAT

Last time they met (Round 3): Redan 94 def Sebastopol 49

Both sides are coming back from a loss in Round 11 for a must-win game at City Oval. Measuring where these teams are at from the outside is tough, but what we do know is that their best is very good. I can't imagine both bringing their 'A-game' as that rarely happens. Just who can hang in the longest with momentum against them and who can capitalise on their own momentum will surely walk away with the points.

How good was it to see reigning Henderson Medallist Lachie Cassidy back in the 'Burra side last week after a lengthy layoff? The bona fide ball-magnet finished with two goals, featured among the best and got through the game unscathed. What a relief for 'Burras coach Michael Searl, who has had the worst run of any (other than maybe North Ballarat?) on the injury front to key players. Another welcomed return for the visitors will be James Keeble.

The 45-point Lions routing of the 'Burra in Round 3, well, nobody saw that coming. The Lions have since welcomed back inspirational leader Liam Hoy, as well as midfielder Lincoln Barnes and new signing 'Tippa', a 6-foot 4-inch product from the Tiwi Islands. Any resemblance of the Lions' 10-point loss here to Melton in Round 10 should hold them in good stead, given Sebastopol could only manage to get within 41 points of the Bloods last week.

This match looms as your classic arm wrestle, although Sebastopol's inability to hit the scoreboard in recent weeks is a concern. In their last two games, the Burra hasn’t posted more than 45 points and while Redan (8th) have an inferior position on the McDonald’s Ballarat Senior Men’s ladder, they do rank 5th for points scored, 4th for shots on goal and equal 4th for total quarters won.

You can 'um and er' all you like with this game; cases can be made for both. A win for Redan keeps them in the hunt while a win for Sebastopol will likely see their return inside the top six. There's a bit at stake here amid a very even year - the win or loss will have consequences on finals chances, that is certain.    


North Ballarat

Bye