Despite Bloods coach Aaron Tymms' 0-3 record at Mars Stadium, the Minor Premiers will start red hot favourites against the Burra.
Will Melton will do enough to secure their first title since 2005? Burras coach Michael Searl will have different ideas and ensure they're made to earn it, even if they come up short as they have in their previous two meets.
Tymms' winless record at the ground is something Burra fans can cling to, but they will have to overcome a similar record (against) of their own to get it done.
Under Searl, Sebastopol is 0-3 against Tymms' Melton. You would have to go back 1099 days come game day to witness the last Burra success over the Bloods - an 18-point,= 2019 Preliminary Final win.
Searl and his boys were able to overcome their 0-3 record over Ballarat last week to make it onto the McDonald's Ballarat FNL's biggest stage. And what an opportunity for both clubs the day presents.
Melton finally gets their chance to assert their dominance, their stranglehold on the 2022 competition in front of a huge crowd enhanced by the addition of live streaming via Facebook, the CLUCH TV app and LIVE radio. I expect this game to be the most watched of any BFNL game in recent history given the improvements to access.
It's the players' time to shine before one club's time to celebrate.
For the record, these two teams are the current Runners Up of 2018 and 2019. So, for the here and now, one club's luck is about to change.
The Bloods ability to score is frightening
If the nature of the Bloods' uncontested superiority is the fuel then surely their ability to score is the fire.
On ten occasions, the Bloods have scored 100+ points or more, not to mention a further six scores of 80+ points. On the flipside for the Burra, three scores of 100+ and just three other scores of 80+.
On the two occasions the Burra has met Melton they have managed just six goals, in fact, their two returns were identical. Why so? See 'the worry for Sebastopol' below. They are just six shy of the Bloods on average for inside 50s per game. The Bloods +7 advantage for marks inside 50 validates the separation of scoring to a degree, highlighting Searl and his support crew will need to have a day out on the magnets and get the message through.
Of the 12 goals kicked by the Burra against Melton this year, only Lachie Cassidy (once - 2 goals) has a multiple-goal return.
The Bloods on the other hand have had six multiple goalscorers from their two meets - Braedan Kight (twice - 2,3), Liam Carter (twice - 4,2), Ryan Carter (once - 3) and Luke Heaney (once - 3).
To put the weight of scoring into perspective, the Burras have just four or more players that played at the weekend kick 10 or more goals this season - James Keeble (32 / 17 games), Jed Hill (17/18), Toby Hutt (16/16), Liam Stow (15/18). Melton however have seven - Ryan Carter (60/17), Braedan Kight (42/18), Liam Carter 40/18), Lachlan Hickey (19/17), Luke Heaney (18/16), Kyle Borg (16/18) and Lachie Watkins (11/17). It's fair to imply that 'frightening' is the operative word.
Expect the Bloods defence to hold up
Only the height of the occasion stands in the way of this unheralded defensive group getting it right once again.
The Bloods have been the competition's benchmark in defence, matching the exploits of their more spoken about forwards group, but that would suit them just fine.
Tymms and his support staff would be thrilled with the returns from his defence given they've been 'the hunted' near all of 2022. Just one more effort stands in the way of the club's first Senior Men's Premiership since 2005.
Surely they've proven themselves more than capable of honouring the challenge.
Only one club averaged less than 60 points per game against this season and it's Melton (54). Convincing to say the least, as the silent assassins went about turning defence on the back of intercept into attack and, ultimately, scores.
Just how the 'Burra forwards get separation and find avenues to goal is another primary concern for Searl and his men. There is some merit in that everything that has happened previously accounts for nothing but something will need to change for the Burra to take home the Cup.
The worry for Sebastopol
Clearly Melton's advantage, regardless of opposition this year, has been their superior weight of possession, and more so uncontested possession.
Tymmsy's boys are +58 for disposals over the Burra on average per game, 50 of those uncontested. As a result, there is no surprise to see the Bloods are +27 for marks including a whopping +26 of those uncontested.
The Bloods often start their attack off half-back and boast a handy +14 advantage over the Burra for intercept possession that no doubt has the follow-on effect to the aforementioned. As a result, these chains of intercept, rebound and uncontested passage amount to a +4 advantage for marked shallow entries inside 50 and +3 for marks deep inside 50. Their sheer weight of possession alone, more often uncontested, has proven the catalyst behind their imposing 16-2 win/loss record and clearly the difference in their previous 41- and 43-point wins.
What is encouraging for the Burra, it's these stats in isolation loom their greatest threat, the rest are quite similar.
The 'potential' fix
Only two teams have been successful against the Bloods in 18 attempts this year. Melton spread most defences with good effect. The only chance the Burra have of causing an upset will be to keep their defence high as they did in the second half of their Elimination Final win over North Ballarat, denying the Bloods the corridor and width of the ground in offence. Easier said than done.
Burra have weapons of their own
You can't make it through such an even BFNL season without some weaponry of your own.
Sebastopol deserves its place in the big one. In fact, Tymms would be the least surprised of any, being the only coach to tip Sebastopol (outside of your own team) at the start of the season.
What will keep the Bloods in check is Tymms' respect for the 'Burra. The Bloods - let's be honest - haven't won anything yet. Tymms has been measured all through the season and has not once been caught 'out of his lane' assuming any premature entitlement.
So, when the Bloods back themselves in they will be fully aware that their opposition bat deep enough to test the season-long favourites.
James Keeble, Lachie Cassidy, Luke Kiel, Toby Hutt, Jed Hill, James Richards, Bailey Medwell, Riley O'Keefe are just eight players that spring to mind without raising the head off the keyboard. Each brings with them an impactful skillset that can aid across all three lines and deny the Bloods a game on their terms. Apologies to Matt Austin, Daniel Widgery, Chase Dummett and maybe even Tony Lockyer. There are another three or four and the potential Lockyer return (?) will gather its own head of steam in the build-up.
What the coaches say
Aaron Tymms (Melton):Really looking forward to the challenge that awaits us. It has been three years of hard work to reach this point and we are looking to get reward for the effort put in over that time. We are under no illusions that Sebastopol presents a tough challenge, are a well-organised team with high-quality players across the ground who enjoy the contest. We will need to be at our best and most combative to succeed and enjoy the ultimate success.
Michael Searl (Sebastopol):Excited for the challenge. We're under no illusions that Melton is deserving of the favourites tag this weekend but we are excited and can't wait to crack in. Anything can happen in a final, so we prepare well and enjoy the lead-up to the biggest game of the year.
*Statistics for this article sourced via Premier Data
