While Ballarat holds the slender advantage head-to-head over Sebastopol (2-0 / 1pt, 3pts) in 2022, the nature of those battles alone suggests we're in store for another epic. It's near impossible to tip a winner with any real degree of confidence so I've expanded on a few areas, purely as a reference point for you to absorb, consider and prioritise order (if any) of relevance.
Burras forwards their key: I've no doubt the Burras defence will do enough right despite the absence of Tony Lockyer to restrict the Swans to a beatable score. But can their forwards deliver on the club's most important day of the season to date? They're more than capable and (outside of Lachie Cassidy) worth every minute of preparedness from Swans Coach Joe Carmody. But the truth is, despite all their arsenal, eight times this year (47% of games) they've been held to nine goals or less. Somehow, weather permitting I don't see that being enough. Leading Burras goalkickers James Keeble (32 goals - 16 games), Jed Hill (17/16) and Toby Hutt (15/15) must deliver on the scoreboard and rely on a 'chop out' from their rotating mids. And getting it all done against a Bailey Van de Heuvel and Nick Weightman Swans-led defence won't be easy. Matt Austin (3 goals /16 games) can be dangerous around goal but has been utilised higher up the ground this year. He and Jed Hill will be important with their ball use plus their run and carry.
The midfield battle: Both sides have seasoned body midfielders and bona fide ruckmen. The clearance battle at the feet of Marcus Powling (Swans) and James Richards (Burra) will be worth the entry ticket alone, for this game will hinge on maximising opportunity. Gee, the Swans brigade looked like scoring every time they won clearance last week against the Devils - highlighting the importance of Burras quartet Richards, Cassidy, Chase Dummett and Daniel Widgery to be on their metal. The Burras press forward against North Ballarat in week one of the finals once inside 50 was crucial in their 27-point win but were found wanting against the Bloods. The Burras need to lift their intent without the ball because the Swans are coming 'all-in' for a spot in the Grand Final. The accountability and execution of the collective midfield groups with and without the ball will certainly impact the result. Sure the Burras copped Melton last week, but they did concede 12 of the last 13 goals of the game which is a concern.
Goalkicking mids? - The Swans lead the battle here. I'm leaving out Burras duo James Keeble and Jed Hill who have spent some time on the ball but in fairness most forward. The Burras' most frequent mids if you will, Lachie Cassidy (8 goals - 12 games), Chase Dummett (7/10), Daniel Widgery (6/11), Bailey Veale (6/17) and Luke Kiel (6/6) pale in comparison to Will Liston (15/18), Lachie Dawson (14/15), Aiden Domic (14/17), Sam James (11/17) and Daniel Kennedy (8/16) on the goal front. I understand the Swans group have played more games but there's no denying the habitual nature of their returns. In a nutshell combined Sebastopol mids 33 goals / 56 games, Ballarat mids 62 goals / 83 games.
Swans' third quarter blues - For a side notorious for their come-from-behind wins in 2022, the Swans' third quarters have become their achilles heel. The Swans have not won a third quarter in their last five games, in fact, they're minus 118 for the period (59-177). While the Swans have every right to dismiss the anomaly, the Burras will give themselves a chance whatever the scoreline come half-time. For the record, the Swans have won just 47.9% of all quarters in 2022 (34.5/72 comp rank #7). Sebastopol (42/72 @58.3% comp rank #2)
Experience matters - While the Swans on face value are an inexperienced group, you cannot discount the importance of senior statesmen Josh Gibson and Andrew Hooper who were instrumental in getting the Swans over the line after being headed last week. The two combined for the last two goals of the game. Gibson kicked five goals while Hooper (1 goal) was important forward of centre in a 'higher forward' role. The Burras will need strength and support to combat Gibson who (if plays - hammy issues) won't venture any further than 25m from goal. Hooper on the other hand was on his bike and clean below the knees suggesting he should be right for another week at least. Gibson has returns of 2 and 3 goals already this year against the Burras while Hooper kicked five in their Round 7 meet.
What the coaches say...
Michael Searl (Sebastopol): On the whole, we have been starved of success and this is our second finals appearance in the last 20 years. Ballarat provides a huge challenge. They have (an) incredible belief (shown in their ability to win the close games) and both times this year, statistically, we probably should've won but their never-say-die attitude has meant they have beaten us by one point and three points. We will need to be really efficient going forward and take our opportunities in front of goal. Huge task ahead, but excited for the challenge.
Joe Carmody (Ballarat): Will be a lighter week on the track (for us) with a number of players recovering or returning from injury. We've an enormous amount of respect for Sebastopol and (in) the two games we had against them this year we won by one and three points. We need to put four quarters together to beat them and stop them (from) scoring heavily when they have momentum. Our players will have to execute the fundamentals really well to get over the line. Everyone at the club is extremely excited about the opportunity that presents itself.
By the numbers
Head-to-head in 2022: Sebastopol 0 - Ballarat 2
Sebastopol
Finished: 3rd (10 wins, 6 losses)
Record against remaining teams: W0 L4
Offence rating (v remaining 3): 3rd (59.5 avg)
Defence rating (v remaining 3): 2nd (81.5 avg)
Leading goalkicker: James Keeble (32)
Quarters won (season): 42/72 @ 58.33%
Best (named) in the second final (Week 2): Lachlan Cassidy
Ballarat
Finished: 2nd (12 wins, 4 losses)
Record against remaining teams: W2 L2
Offence rating (v remaining 3): 2nd (62.25 avg)
Defence rating (v remaining 3): 3rd (90.75 avg)
Leading goalkicker: Andrew Hooper (39)
Quarters won (season): 34.5/72 @ 47.92%
Best (named) in the second final (Week 2): Carter Prendergast
